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Global Macro Guidance from August 3 to August 9: The Shift in the Market's Three Major Pricing Logics, the "Clarity Act" Determines the Short-Term Rise and Fall of Crypto!
8月3日-8月9日全球宏观指引：市场三大定价逻辑的切换，《清晰法案》决定加密短期兴衰！ 本周市场需要经历从宏观到财报的三大定价逻辑的切换： A，美伊地缘风险从战争回归谈判，海峡问题能否达成协议减缓能源价格压力？ B，美国宏观数据从通胀走向就业，就业能否撼动沃什的政策框架？#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐 C，美股AI交易从巨头资本开支走向产业链利益，各家财报否能支撑产业链信心？ 本周核心总结：原油能不能下来、美国经济能不能温和降温、AI盈利能不能继续增长。 本周与上周不同，上周美股巨头财报，财报对市场的影响力大于宏观数据与地缘，而本周美股财报进入常规验证阶段，影响权重降低，影响市场最大因素回归美伊地缘，其次就是就业数据与利率预期，最后才是财报，各位小伙伴注意调整关注重点 一，美伊从军事风险走向协议兑现 1，特朗普连续两个周末军事与外交施压，然后TACO ，市场逐渐适应节奏并且习惯逐渐脱敏，市场关注度不再是两者能不能打起来，而是海峡能否以某种协议的方式恢复通航。 2，伊朗的强硬与坚持，特朗普的连续军事施压升级与T
Obviously, Trump's remarks in the early morning once again triggered a strong diplomatic rebuttal from Iran, and crude oil prices continued to rebound.
However, according to the latest news, the progress of the agreement between Iran and Oman seems to be good, but the final result has not been announced.
It seems the market believes that the statements from U.S. officials are more reliable than Trump's remarks at this time.
But one thing to note is that I cross-verified multiple sources, and the progress of the Iran-Oman agreement is highly credible, but the so-called "50-50 split" service fee has not been confirmed and is less likely.
This may be part of the reason why the short-term decline in crude oil prices is limited. Of course, the main reason is that no official statement from Oman or Iran has been seen yet, so further verification is needed. Overall, the current pace is optimistic! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Cato_KT
It seems that the market's trust in Trump is already very low,
Trump stated early this morning that negotiations with Iran are ongoing and divided into two phases, and he also said the Strait of Hormuz will open tomorrow, but energy prices have not dropped; instead, they have slightly rebounded.
Actually, there are two factors involved here:
1. The market has very poor trust in Trump's self-serving statements, and according to management, every time Trump makes outrageous remarks, it inevitably triggers a strong diplomatic rebuttal from Iran, causing the market to preemptively rebound.
2. Currently, the main issue between the US and Iran is not directly between them, so Trump's claim of opening the strait first and then negotiating the nuclear agreement is naturally ignored, while the market's focus is on the joint management agreement of the strait between Iran and Oman.
In fact, everyone clearly understands the background of this agreement: nominally it is Oman, but behind it actually represents the interests of the US and its allied system. Therefore, once the agreement between Oman and Iran is reached, the strait issue will naturally be resolved.
Trump talking about opening the strait at this time is obviously untimely and even disrupts the originally stable plan.
Next, we have to wait for Iran's diplomatic rebuttal. It is estimated that crude oil prices will slightly rebound. The current focus remains on watching the situation between Iran and Oman.
Before the Iran-Oman agreement is clarified, Trump's words can actually be temporarily ignored! Otherwise, it would be headache-inducing! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
It seems that the market's trust in Trump is already very low,
Trump stated early this morning that negotiations with Iran are ongoing and divided into two phases, and he also said the Strait of Hormuz will open tomorrow, but energy prices have not dropped; instead, they have slightly rebounded.
Actually, there are two factors involved here:
1. The market has very poor trust in Trump's self-serving statements, and according to management, every time Trump makes outrageous remarks, it inevitably triggers a strong diplomatic rebuttal from Iran, causing the market to preemptively rebound.
2. Currently, the main issue between the US and Iran is not directly between them, so Trump's claim of opening the strait first and then negotiating the nuclear agreement is naturally ignored, while the market's focus is on the joint management agreement of the strait between Iran and Oman.
In fact, everyone clearly understands the background of this agreement: nominally it is Oman, but behind it actually represents the interests of the US and its allied system. Therefore, once the agreement between Oman and Iran is reached, the strait issue will naturally be resolved.
Trump talking about opening the strait at this time is obviously untimely and even disrupts the originally stable plan.
Next, we have to wait for Iran's diplomatic rebuttal. It is estimated that crude oil prices will slightly rebound. The current focus remains on watching the situation between Iran and Oman.
Before the Iran-Oman agreement is clarified, Trump's words can actually be temporarily ignored! Otherwise, it would be headache-inducing! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Cato_KT
Many people say that Trump deliberately refuses to negotiate with Iran just to profit from high oil prices, but little do they know that the United States is a capitalist society, and the money earned does not necessarily go into Trump's pocket. However, high oil prices put tremendous political and public approval pressure on Trump.
If Trump really wanted high oil prices, why would he call on energy companies to lower prices? The key issue is that high oil prices trigger domestic dissatisfaction; when people's lives are unhappy, support decreases, and this support rate directly affects the midterm elections.
The midterm elections are Trump's last chance in office to purge the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment, so they are very important for the second half of his term.
Actually, speaking frankly, businessmen pursuing profit, even profiting from national crises, is not uncommon in the U.S., and this is not the first time such a thing has happened. Many may have overlooked an event: early in this year's U.S.-Iran conflict, Trump called a meeting with American energy giants to discuss expanding capital expenditure to increase U.S. crude oil production capacity.
But several energy companies directly refused, citing the need to maintain cash flow. Obviously, the old capital is not afraid of this "transient American president." They weren't afraid then; are they really afraid of the current threat to lower prices?
Instead of accusing Trump of "incompetence," it would be better to study how to solve the Iran issue. When international oil prices return to normal, domestic oil prices in the U.S. will naturally drop significantly. Of course, this option is not easy; Trump is somewhat "caught between a rock and a hard place"! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Actually, #Bitcoin is currently in an awkward phase of "longs and shorts calling each other fools," which is the biggest contradiction in the past month.
Looking back, the last time I wrote about #BTC was on July 21. I remember that during that period, as the "Clear Act" progressed, the pressure from earnings reports had not yet appeared, and BTC's rebound momentum was slightly stronger. The debate between bulls and bears became a hot topic.
Some were firmly bullish, others bearish expecting a top. Actually, the current resolution basically validates my earlier hypothesis: the theme remains a rebound followed by a pullback. I'm not bringing this up to mock anyone or argue who's right or wrong.
I just want to say, if we look at the daily chart and the range I previously drew, BTC has not yet completed a breakout from the bottom range. In other words, the bottom formation is not fully confirmed. So within the 58,000–67,400 range, as long as there is no effective breakout, both bulls and bears seem reasonable—it just depends on which position you stand on to view the market!
Additionally, looking at several key Fibonacci resistance levels, BTC has not even completed a clear and effective rebound yet.
From a technical perspective, #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露
58,000–67,400 is the current bottom formation range. Next, a breakout test is needed to further confirm whether the bottom is valid.
If it breaks upward, the bottom formation is successful, and the rebound can continue to 74,000, which is the real resistance level brought by Fibonacci. The price reaching this point would count as an effective rebound trend. If it breaks downward, test whether 58,000 can form support again. If the support holds and the rebound is strong, it also means the short-term bottom range is valid. If it breaks to a new low, then the bottom range fails.
Therefore, at this stage, don't rush to judge the big trend as bullish or bearish. Instead, observe and confirm whether the bottom range has been established. From different perspectives, the bullish view after effective support and rebound at 58,000 and the bearish view at 67,400 are not contradictory, so there's no need to argue.
From a macro perspective:
The geopolitical situation remains unclear, energy prices are still relatively high, and inflation pressure is strong.
On the macroeconomic side, current data shows the US economy remains resilient, inflation decline is not yet sustainable, the risk of employment recession is unconfirmed, and interest rate pressure remains significant.
Regarding US stocks, the Q2 earnings season is not over, the entire AI industry chain's test is incomplete, and the AI leader Nvidia's earnings report is yet to be released. Everything is still unsettled, and risks are not fully cleared.
Market data compared to July 21:
Market cap changes are in a declining phase compared to then, but the reduction mainly concentrates on BTC.
Trading volume has continued to decline since July 21, overall at a relatively low level this year, with ETH and altcoin volumes dropping significantly, and BTC volume clearly reduced.
Regarding funds, total volume has decreased by 3.2 billion compared to then, with USDT net outflow of 850 million and USDC net outflow of 1.1 billion, meaning funds have been in net outflow over the past half month.
Overall, market activity has decreased compared to half a month ago, with net fund outflows, which indeed does not currently support the start of a new trend.
Summary and trading ideas:
BTC's current price is in an awkward position, technically in the middle of the range, and macro uncertainty remains. I'm not very good at ultra-short-term trading, but according to my personal philosophy, even for short-term trades, I want to wait for a clear signal before acting.
A short-term observation point is around 63,000, which is a key chip area frequently contested recently. First, see if the price can form effective turnover near this level to make 63,000 an important support.
Event-driven, the focus this week is on the progress of the "Clear Act." If the bill passes, it will likely drive BTC prices up in the short term. First, see if it can break through the 67,400 range limit. After an effective breakout, then see if it can reach the key resistance at 74,000 to complete an effective rebound.
Conversely, if the bill does not pass, watch the situation around 63,000, 60,000, and 58,000 to see if the bottom support test is effective. If no new lows are broken, watch the rebound to finally confirm whether the 58,000–67,400 range can become a true bottom formation range.
Regarding the Clarity Act, there is a "conspiracy theory" factor
Do you still remember the unexpected death of Senator Graham, an important Republican senator, on July 11?
This senator was considered a pillar within the Republican Party, an important supporter of Trump, experienced, skilled in bipartisan communication, and a key promoter of the Clarity Act.
Besides causing short-term political turmoil on Capitol Hill, Graham's unexpected death also caused the Republican Party to lose an important internal lubricant and an external communicator.
Although Graham's death cannot be considered the biggest reason why the Clarity Act has not passed, imagine if this Republican pillar were still alive, communication with the current Democratic opponents would be somewhat smoother.
The development of this Clarity Act has truly been full of hardships, and whether Graham's death was "fate" remains unknown
#CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
Cato_KT
Detailed explanation of the "Clarity Act," the bill considered to determine the fate of the crypto world, which is also entering a critical phase this week—whether it can pass before the August 7 recess.
Key point—whether it can pass before the August 7 recess.
The core logic is that if it cannot pass before the August 7 recess, the Senate will reconvene on September 14. By then, the U.S. 2027 fiscal bill will require negotiation, along with other national-level bills under discussion, making it difficult for the Clarity Act to be prioritized.
If the bill moves into the October-November midterm elections, due to election issues, Senate voting will be more cautious, and the probability of the bill passing will be even lower. So theoretically, if it cannot pass before the August 7 recess, the entire bill approval process will be significantly delayed, which is the main market concern!
Where is the current bottleneck?
The basic text of the Clarity Act has been finalized. Next steps are unifying the text → securing 60 votes in the Senate → full Senate procedural vote → House approval of the Senate text → presidential signature.
The current bottleneck is securing 60 votes in the Senate. Currently, 7 Democratic senators oppose the bill, mainly using the bill vote to make demands and raise the price. Republicans, or specifically Trump, will not easily compromise, making 60 votes the biggest hurdle.
Senate Republican leader Thune has expressed pessimism about the current situation, stating the possibility of passing before the recess window is very low.
Of course, the window to pass the bill before recess is not 100% closed. What should be the focus going forward?
1. The Senate agenda on August 3 does not include the Clarity Act, but procedural absence does not mean the bipartisan communication window is closed. Simply put, although it is not on the agenda, negotiation and bargaining can still occur.
2. Whether a bipartisan cooperation agreement will emerge between August 3 and August 4, especially if key Democrats like Warner, Booker, Gallego, Gillibrand publicly support the new text. If so, it means the difficulty of passing the bill decreases, and 60 votes might be reached.
3. If by the evening of August 4 U.S. time no clear bipartisan agreement appears, the probability of the Clarity Act passing this week greatly diminishes, because the procedures needed before recess require time, and the time is too tight, compressing the success rate.
Can the Clarity Act really determine the fate of the crypto world?
This is the core concern for many and also a key misconception. Many believe the bill determines the fate of the crypto world, but I think not necessarily!
The role of the Clarity Act in crypto is to determine the speed of institutionalization of crypto assets in the U.S. Simply put, it decides how fast U.S. capital accepts crypto legally and compliantly.
If the bill passes, it will change the entire industry's fate in the U.S., accelerating integration with traditional finance and speeding up capital participation. More funds and more participants and institutions naturally benefit the market.
But this benefit is subtle and long-term, changing the industry environment rather than fundamentally altering the basics. For #Bitcoin price, it will certainly stimulate short-term gains, but to truly resolve the current conceptual crypto world dilemma, macro environment improvements are also needed.
The reverse logic is simple: since the bill does not change the crypto fundamentals, its failure to pass will not harm fundamentals, especially for BTC. This means fundamentals remain intact; at most, valuation adjusts, the market faces pressure, and new trends are delayed.
So the final conclusion is that the Clarity Act cannot change the fate of the crypto world, only its survival environment or short-term fate. Passing is better; failure is pessimistic but not hopeless.
Returning to the present, if the crypto bill has no chance to pass this week and BTC price falls, the coming period will inevitably be a FUD phase and an undervalued phase. Fundamentals do not collapse, so undervaluation is a buying opportunity.
If the bill passes and prices rise short-term, don’t get too carried away. The macro outlook is not optimistic; the U.S. Q2 earnings season is not over, valuation corrections are ongoing, and whether the Clarity Act can help BTC defy the trend remains to be seen!
Short-term bill assessment: #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
Although Senate obstacles exist, private bipartisan communication windows remain. As long as conditions are agreed upon and Democrats change stance, there is still time to initiate review procedures before August 4.
Currently, market disappointment over the bill passing is due to low probability, not zero probability, so no need to be completely discouraged!
Detailed explanation of the "Clarity Act," the bill considered to determine the fate of the crypto world, which is also entering a critical phase this week—whether it can pass before the August 7 recess.
Key point—whether it can pass before the August 7 recess.
The core logic is that if it cannot pass before the August 7 recess, the Senate will reconvene on September 14. By then, the U.S. 2027 fiscal bill will require negotiation, along with other national-level bills under discussion, making it difficult for the Clarity Act to be prioritized.
If the bill moves into the October-November midterm elections, due to election issues, Senate voting will be more cautious, and the probability of the bill passing will be even lower. So theoretically, if it cannot pass before the August 7 recess, the entire bill approval process will be significantly delayed, which is the main market concern!
Where is the current bottleneck?
The basic text of the Clarity Act has been finalized. Next steps are unifying the text → securing 60 votes in the Senate → full Senate procedural vote → House approval of the Senate text → presidential signature.
The current bottleneck is securing 60 votes in the Senate. Currently, 7 Democratic senators oppose the bill, mainly using the bill vote to make demands and raise the price. Republicans, or specifically Trump, will not easily compromise, making 60 votes the biggest hurdle.
Senate Republican leader Thune has expressed pessimism about the current situation, stating the possibility of passing before the recess window is very low.
Of course, the window to pass the bill before recess is not 100% closed. What should be the focus going forward?
1. The Senate agenda on August 3 does not include the Clarity Act, but procedural absence does not mean the bipartisan communication window is closed. Simply put, although it is not on the agenda, negotiation and bargaining can still occur.
2. Whether a bipartisan cooperation agreement will emerge between August 3 and August 4, especially if key Democrats like Warner, Booker, Gallego, Gillibrand publicly support the new text. If so, it means the difficulty of passing the bill decreases, and 60 votes might be reached.
3. If by the evening of August 4 U.S. time no clear bipartisan agreement appears, the probability of the Clarity Act passing this week greatly diminishes, because the procedures needed before recess require time, and the time is too tight, compressing the success rate.
Can the Clarity Act really determine the fate of the crypto world?
This is the core concern for many and also a key misconception. Many believe the bill determines the fate of the crypto world, but I think not necessarily!
The role of the Clarity Act in crypto is to determine the speed of institutionalization of crypto assets in the U.S. Simply put, it decides how fast U.S. capital accepts crypto legally and compliantly.
If the bill passes, it will change the entire industry's fate in the U.S., accelerating integration with traditional finance and speeding up capital participation. More funds and more participants and institutions naturally benefit the market.
But this benefit is subtle and long-term, changing the industry environment rather than fundamentally altering the basics. For #Bitcoin price, it will certainly stimulate short-term gains, but to truly resolve the current conceptual crypto world dilemma, macro environment improvements are also needed.
The reverse logic is simple: since the bill does not change the crypto fundamentals, its failure to pass will not harm fundamentals, especially for BTC. This means fundamentals remain intact; at most, valuation adjusts, the market faces pressure, and new trends are delayed.
So the final conclusion is that the Clarity Act cannot change the fate of the crypto world, only its survival environment or short-term fate. Passing is better; failure is pessimistic but not hopeless.
Returning to the present, if the crypto bill has no chance to pass this week and BTC price falls, the coming period will inevitably be a FUD phase and an undervalued phase. Fundamentals do not collapse, so undervaluation is a buying opportunity.
If the bill passes and prices rise short-term, don’t get too carried away. The macro outlook is not optimistic; the U.S. Q2 earnings season is not over, valuation corrections are ongoing, and whether the Clarity Act can help BTC defy the trend remains to be seen!
Short-term bill assessment: #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #CLARITY法案错过休会窗口
Although Senate obstacles exist, private bipartisan communication windows remain. As long as conditions are agreed upon and Democrats change stance, there is still time to initiate review procedures before August 4.
Currently, market disappointment over the bill passing is due to low probability, not zero probability, so no need to be completely discouraged!
Let's separately discuss this week's main macro themes. The three major themes this week are geopolitics, macro data, and US stock earnings reports.
Geopolitics focuses on whether the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman can reach a new agreement to keep the strait practically open.
Macro data will verify whether US economic data is strong or indicates a soft landing, along with related inflation and employment conditions.
US stock earnings reports, from large corporations' capital expenditures to small and medium enterprises, will verify profitability and impact valuation adjustments across the entire AI industry chain.
The best scenario for these three main themes is a mild economic slowdown, weakening employment, easing inflation reducing interest rate pressure, geopolitical easing lowering energy prices to ease inflation pressure, and stable US earnings reports providing more confidence to the AI industry chain, allowing valuations to stabilize and be digested.
Tonight's US July ISM Manufacturing PMI data is the first verification data in the macro data set. Honestly, the result is not very optimistic.
Tonight's data shows that US manufacturing did not cool down but rather heated up again, accelerating manufacturing. Demand, production, and employment sub-indices are all growing. Price pressure (inflation pressure) has decreased somewhat, which counts as data showing strong economic growth with marginal inflation improvement, supporting a soft landing expectation.
However, a soft economic landing cannot change the current interest rate pressure. Although inflation has improved, the improvement is insufficient. The relatively strong economic growth offsets the easing of inflation pressure, and employment is also strong. Next, market expectations will have to be adjusted based on upcoming ISM Services PMI and the large and small nonfarm payroll reports.
If after this Friday's major nonfarm payroll release, the macro data can be revised back to an environment of mild economic growth with declining inflation and employment, it will be most favorable for the current interest rate and risk markets.
Looking at the current trends of the US dollar, gold, and 1-year short-term bonds, tonight's data deepened interest rate concerns, slightly raising rate hike expectations, strengthening 1-year yields and the US dollar, while gold was slightly pressured!
For US stocks and #Bitcoin, short-term gains benefit from technical rebound repair + stable macroeconomic conditions + geopolitical factors such as the Iran-Oman agreement leading to lower crude oil prices. However, with subsequent macro data revisions, earnings reports, and developments in the US-Iran situation this week, whether optimism can be sustained still needs further confirmation! #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #美日确认联合购汇
Cato_KT
8月3日-8月9日全球宏观指引：市场三大定价逻辑的切换，《清晰法案》决定加密短期兴衰！
Global Macro Guidance from August 3 to August 9: The Market's Three Major Pricing Logic Shifts, the "Clear Act" Determines the Short-Term Rise and Fall of Crypto! This week, the market needs to undergo three major pricing logic shifts from macro to earnings: A. The US-Iran geopolitical risk shifts from war back to negotiation; can an agreement on the Strait issue ease energy price pressures? B. US macro data shifts from inflation to employment; can employment shake Wash's policy framework? #30-year US Treasury, top or new starting point? #Earnings Observer: Four earnings releases this week, Circle closes the show #US-Iran back to the negotiating table, oil prices retreat C. US stock AI trading shifts from giant capital expenditures to industry chain interests; can the earnings reports support confidence in the industry chain? Core summary for this week: Can crude oil prices come down, can the US economy cool down moderately, and can AI profits continue to grow? Unlike last week, when US tech giants' earnings had more market impact than macro data and geopolitics, this week US earnings enter a routine verification phase with reduced influence. The biggest market factors return to US-Iran geopolitics, followed by employment data and interest rate expectations, and finally earnings. Everyone, please adjust your focus accordingly. 1. US-Iran moves from military risk to agreement fulfillment 1. Trump applied military and diplomatic pressure for two consecutive weekends, then TACO; the market gradually adapts to the rhythm and becomes desensitized. Market attention is no longer on whether the two sides will fight, but whether the Strait can resume navigation through some form of agreement. 2. Iran's toughness and persistence, Trump's continuous military pressure escalation and T
Many people say that Trump deliberately refuses to negotiate with Iran just to profit from high oil prices, but little do they know that the United States is a capitalist society, and the money earned does not necessarily go into Trump's pocket. However, high oil prices put tremendous political and public approval pressure on Trump.
If Trump really wanted high oil prices, why would he call on energy companies to lower prices? The key issue is that high oil prices trigger domestic dissatisfaction; when people's lives are unhappy, support decreases, and this support rate directly affects the midterm elections.
The midterm elections are Trump's last chance in office to purge the Democratic Party and the Republican establishment, so they are very important for the second half of his term.
Actually, speaking frankly, businessmen pursuing profit, even profiting from national crises, is not uncommon in the U.S., and this is not the first time such a thing has happened. Many may have overlooked an event: early in this year's U.S.-Iran conflict, Trump called a meeting with American energy giants to discuss expanding capital expenditure to increase U.S. crude oil production capacity.
But several energy companies directly refused, citing the need to maintain cash flow. Obviously, the old capital is not afraid of this "transient American president." They weren't afraid then; are they really afraid of the current threat to lower prices?
Instead of accusing Trump of "incompetence," it would be better to study how to solve the Iran issue. When international oil prices return to normal, domestic oil prices in the U.S. will naturally drop significantly. Of course, this option is not easy; Trump is somewhat "caught between a rock and a hard place"! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Cato_KT
Everyone can see that Iran has once again emphasized its rejection of the US agreement regarding the strait, but looking at crude oil prices, there has been no significant fluctuation.
This situation further confirms my previous view that currently, the dual navigation policy between Iran and Oman has a greater impact on the market than the friction between the US and Iran.
The market's main focus is whether Iran and Oman can restore navigation through the strait. Looking at another piece of maritime traffic data, although the navigation data on August 2 did not show a clear increase compared to last week, the key signal is that ships are still passing through the strait between Iran and Oman.
This means that although Iran's stance towards the US is strong, it has not 100% closed the strait. On a deeper level, the market is optimistic that as long as Iran and Oman reach an agreement, the strait can gradually reopen.
Since the market has validated that my logic is correct, the focus this week remains on the strait agreement between Iran and Oman. This agreement takes priority over other US-Iran developments! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Everyone can see that Iran has once again emphasized its rejection of the US agreement regarding the strait, but looking at crude oil prices, there has been no significant fluctuation.
This situation further confirms my previous view that currently, the dual navigation policy between Iran and Oman has a greater impact on the market than the friction between the US and Iran.
The market's main focus is whether Iran and Oman can restore navigation through the strait. Looking at another piece of maritime traffic data, although the navigation data on August 2 did not show a clear increase compared to last week, the key signal is that ships are still passing through the strait between Iran and Oman.
This means that although Iran's stance towards the US is strong, it has not 100% closed the strait. On a deeper level, the market is optimistic that as long as Iran and Oman reach an agreement, the strait can gradually reopen.
Since the market has validated that my logic is correct, the focus this week remains on the strait agreement between Iran and Oman. This agreement takes priority over other US-Iran developments! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Cato_KT
Let me "translate" Iran's diplomatic rhetoric for everyone:
From this passage, it can be seen that Iran's diplomatic stance remains tough, but positive signals have already appeared in actual actions, and Iran refuses to acknowledge that the Strait issue is caused by Iran, instead kicking the Strait issue back to the US.
The subtext is that the Strait can resume navigation, but only on the premise that the US lifts the blockade on Iran and acknowledges that the Strait issue is led by Iran and Oman.
So what is the practical significance for the US-Iran situation? Why have energy prices started to fall?
As I explained in the macro commentary pinned this week, the current focus on the US-Iran situation is not whether they will fight or cause trouble, but whether the Strait can be opened. As for who will open it, how it will be opened, and who will manage it, no one really cares for now.
Therefore, Iran starting communication with Oman to restore navigation is an important easing signal for international energy prices once a preliminary agreement is reached, so the market remains optimistic about Iran's diplomatic rhetoric.
As long as Iran and Oman reach and announce a new co-management plan for the Strait, it can be seen as a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation. Even if the US and Iran engage in verbal disputes again, as long as it does not affect actual navigation, it is not a big problem.
Currently, the focus of attention, I will rank the impact weights:
Whether the Iran-Oman co-management agreement is implemented > Whether actual navigation in the Strait resumes > Whether the US and Iran officially start negotiations > Verbal disputes and military friction between the US and Iran.
This impact weight will most likely become the main roadmap for US-Iran diplomacy at this stage: first an agreement, then restoration, solving the core Strait issue with both sides sitting down to talk, followed by the mutual verbal sparring phase!
As for the market, the short-term decline in international energy and US oil prices is a good proof. For now, US oil should first be watched to see if it can reach 75! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Let me "translate" Iran's diplomatic rhetoric for everyone:
From this passage, it can be seen that Iran's diplomatic stance remains tough, but positive signals have already appeared in actual actions, and Iran refuses to acknowledge that the Strait issue is caused by Iran, instead kicking the Strait issue back to the US.
The subtext is that the Strait can resume navigation, but only on the premise that the US lifts the blockade on Iran and acknowledges that the Strait issue is led by Iran and Oman.
So what is the practical significance for the US-Iran situation? Why have energy prices started to fall?
As I explained in the macro commentary pinned this week, the current focus on the US-Iran situation is not whether they will fight or cause trouble, but whether the Strait can be opened. As for who will open it, how it will be opened, and who will manage it, no one really cares for now.
Therefore, Iran starting communication with Oman to restore navigation is an important easing signal for international energy prices once a preliminary agreement is reached, so the market remains optimistic about Iran's diplomatic rhetoric.
As long as Iran and Oman reach and announce a new co-management plan for the Strait, it can be seen as a de-escalation of the US-Iran situation. Even if the US and Iran engage in verbal disputes again, as long as it does not affect actual navigation, it is not a big problem.
Currently, the focus of attention, I will rank the impact weights:
Whether the Iran-Oman co-management agreement is implemented > Whether actual navigation in the Strait resumes > Whether the US and Iran officially start negotiations > Verbal disputes and military friction between the US and Iran.
This impact weight will most likely become the main roadmap for US-Iran diplomacy at this stage: first an agreement, then restoration, solving the core Strait issue with both sides sitting down to talk, followed by the mutual verbal sparring phase!
As for the market, the short-term decline in international energy and US oil prices is a good proof. For now, US oil should first be watched to see if it can reach 75! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐
Cato_KT
A new week begins, and Trump's "mouth" is back to work!
In recent months, Trump has been making tough statements on Fridays, then going silent, and on weekend nights dropping another TACO move, a very clear rhythm.
The core purpose is to apply increasingly strong military and diplomatic pressure to force Iran and regional mediators to start compromising and negotiating, thereby achieving his own diplomatic and negotiation goals.
The tactic is old, clichéd, and simple, but given the current US military strength and Trump's poor "reputation," no one dares to bet on whether he will take action, so it still has an effect.
It's like in a society ruled by law: if a normal person holds a knife, you might not fear being harmed, but if someone tells you this person is a "madman," probably everyone would keep their distance. Becoming a mad dog or madman might not be a bad thing for Trump.
Of course, the space for using this effective tactic is limited. Two weeks ago, he declared the largest-scale strike; last week, he increased the description of the attack scale. What about this week? If Iran remains stubborn this week, Trump's options are few and he might have to force a large-scale attack on Iran?
However, the US-Iran situation is not without progress. Although Iran does not want to admit it, facing military intimidation, the Iran-Oman Strait co-management agreement has still made some breakthroughs. Next, it depends on the actual version. If this version can be jointly recognized by Iran and the US, the US and Iran will return to the negotiating table!
For risk markets, the recent negative impact brought by US-Iran geopolitics has already weakened a lot. Similarly, how much positive effect will the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table bring? Obviously, not much.
The most sensitive remains the international crude oil price and US oil. US oil will first look to reach 75; if it stabilizes below 75, then 65 prices can be expected! But this process will take time! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐