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Global Macro Guidance from August 3 to August 9: The Market's Three Major Pricing Logic Shifts, the "Clear Act" Determines the Short-Term Rise and Fall of Crypto! This week, the market needs to undergo three major pricing logic shifts from macro to earnings: A. The US-Iran geopolitical risk shifts from war back to negotiation; can an agreement on the Strait issue ease energy price pressures? B. US macro data shifts from inflation to employment; can employment shake Wash's policy framework? #30-year US Treasury, top or new starting point? #Earnings Observer: Four earnings releases this week, Circle closes the show #US-Iran back to the negotiating table, oil prices retreat C. US stock AI trading shifts from giant capital expenditures to industry chain interests; can the earnings reports support confidence in the industry chain? Core summary for this week: Can crude oil prices come down, can the US economy cool down moderately, and can AI profits continue to grow? Unlike last week, when US tech giants' earnings had more market impact than macro data and geopolitics, this week US earnings enter a routine verification phase with reduced influence. The biggest market factors return to US-Iran geopolitics, followed by employment data and interest rate expectations, and finally earnings. Everyone, please adjust your focus accordingly. 1. US-Iran moves from military risk to agreement fulfillment 1. Trump applied military and diplomatic pressure for two consecutive weekends, then TACO; the market gradually adapts to the rhythm and becomes desensitized. Market attention is no longer on whether the two sides will fight, but whether the Strait can resume navigation through some form of agreement. 2. Iran's toughness and persistence, Trump's continuous military pressure escalation and T