Post

It seems that the market's trust in Trump is already very low, Trump stated early this morning that negotiations with Iran are ongoing and divided into two phases, and he also said the Strait of Hormuz will open tomorrow, but energy prices have not dropped; instead, they have slightly rebounded. Actually, there are two factors involved here: 1. The market has very poor trust in Trump's self-serving statements, and according to management, every time Trump makes outrageous remarks, it inevitably triggers a strong diplomatic rebuttal from Iran, causing the market to preemptively rebound. 2. Currently, the main issue between the US and Iran is not directly between them, so Trump's claim of opening the strait first and then negotiating the nuclear agreement is naturally ignored, while the market's focus is on the joint management agreement of the strait between Iran and Oman. In fact, everyone clearly understands the background of this agreement: nominally it is Oman, but behind it actually represents the interests of the US and its allied system. Therefore, once the agreement between Oman and Iran is reached, the strait issue will naturally be resolved. Trump talking about opening the strait at this time is obviously untimely and even disrupts the originally stable plan. Next, we have to wait for Iran's diplomatic rebuttal. It is estimated that crude oil prices will slightly rebound. The current focus remains on watching the situation between Iran and Oman. Before the Iran-Oman agreement is clarified, Trump's words can actually be temporarily ignored! Otherwise, it would be headache-inducing! #美伊重回谈判桌，油价回吐