#30YrYieldTopOrStart
About 30YrYieldTopOrStart
After the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27%, a 2007 high, long-end pricing split fast. JPMorgan pulled its Fed hike call from H2 2027 to this December and lifted end-2026 targets: 10-year to 4.85% from 4.70%, 30-year to 5.40% from 5.20%. Two forces pull back: US-Iran talks sent oil down over 7% intraday, easing the inflation prop; and Japan selling Treasuries to fund yen intervention would lift yields, though Bessent's FIMA repo lets Tokyo get dollars without selling. 5.3% is the anchor to watch.
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Det är lite lustigt – det mest klassiska exemplet i historien: den 30-åriga amerikanska statsobligationsräntan är så hög som i juni 2007, så finns det en ekonomisk kris?
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Mer än en stor aktör jämförde den 30-åriga amerikanska statsobligationsräntan med juni 2027, och sade sedan att förra gången var en snabb ekonomisk kris.
Frågan är att båda räntorna är 5,27%. I en miljö där räntorna är 3,6% respektive 5,25%, kan de vara desamma?
┈➤ Långsiktiga amerikanska statsobligationsräntor vs. federal funds effective rate
Den effektiva federal funds-räntan uppstår vanligtvis när affärsbanker har otillräckliga reserver under avvecklingen. Detta är den kortsiktiga räntan.
Eftersom långsiktiga amerikanska statsobligationsräntor har långa cykler kräver de mer löptidsersättning, så under normala omständigheter är de långfristiga amerikanska statsobligationsräntorna högre än den effektiva federal funds-räntan (hädanefter kallad räntan).
┈➤2026 vs 2017
I juni 2017 var räntan 5,25 %, och vid den tidpunkten var avkastningen på 5,27 % på amerikanska statsobligationer hög, vilket var kopplat till högre räntor.
Faktum är att runt juli 2016~juni 2017 var 30-åriga statsobligationsavkastningen lägre än räntan, och denna period ansågs vara en avkastningsinversion.
I juni 2017 hade avkastningen på 30-åriga amerikanska statsobligationer just stigit tillbaka till nära räntorna. Vid den tiden var amerikanska statsobligationsavkastningar inte höga i förhållande till räntorna.
Oavsett om det var inversionen före juni 2017 eller nedgången i 30-åriga statsobligationer efter juni 2017, speglar båda utbudsbristen på 30-åriga statsobligationer, drivna av räntesänkningar och förväntningar på recession.
År 2026, med en ränta på 3,6 % och 30-åriga statsobligationsräntor som vida överstiger tidigare räntor, är trenden uppåt.
För närvarande finns förväntningar på räntehöjningar, och det finns ingen trend där långsiktiga amerikanska statsobligationer överstiger utbudet, så det är mycket sannolikt att det inte finns någon förväntan på recession.
Anledningen till att säga 'mest sannolikt' är att storleken på amerikanska statsobligationer växer för snabbt och medför vissa risker, så motivationen att köpa statsobligationer för säkra hamnar kan minska. Men en annan tillgång med säkra hamn-attribut – guld – är också på nedgång nu. Ärligt talat är det stor sannolikhet att det inte finns någon förväntan om recession.
tvbee
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Riskerna med amerikanska statsobligationer är redan synliga för blotta ögat, så kommer Fed verkligen att höja räntorna i september?
Att höja räntorna skulle driva upp amerikanska statsobligationsräntor och öka finansiärens finansieringskostnader.
┈➤ "Tvetydigheten" mellan Federal Reserve och den federala regeringen
Även om Federal Reserve är oberoende är relationen mellan Fed och finansdepartementet också något tvetydig.
╰✦ Federal Reserve överför nettovinster till den federala regeringen
Å ena sidan, även om Fed är självförsörjande, måste den överlämna de återstående nettovinsterna till den amerikanska regeringen.
Den amerikanska regeringen kommer inte att ge någon finansiering till Federal Reserve. Dessutom, efter att ha täckt kostnader, betalat utdelning till medlemsbanker, täckt tidigare förluster och lagstadgade behållna vinster, kommer Fed att överlämna den stora majoriteten av nettovinsten till finansdepartementet.
╰✦ Största delen av Feds vinster kommer från amerikanska statsobligationer
Å andra sidan kommer större delen av Feds vinster från att inneha statsobligationer utgivna av finansdepartementet (under normala omständigheter).
Federal Reserve frigjorde dollarlikviditet genom att köpa amerikanska statsobligationer och bolånesäkrade värdepapper (MBS).
Köp/minskning av innehav av amerikanska statsobligationer är en av de viktigaste formerna av QE/QT. Därför har Fed länge haft en stor mängd amerikanska statsobligationer, och statsobligationsräntan är den huvudsakliga källan till Feds avkastning.
Dessutom, när Fed köper MBS under QE och fortsätter att hålla dem under en period därefter, kan MBS också generera ränteintäkter. Men under de flesta år tjänar amerikanska statsobligationer mer ränta. Som affärsbankernas bank erbjuder Federal Reserve rabatter, lån och andra tjänster, och kan även generera avkastning. Men om det inte är under en kris är denna del av inkomsten vanligtvis lägre.
Så överlag är amerikanska statsobligationer en av de viktigaste inkomstkällorna för Federal Reserve.
Så, kommer Federal Reserve inte att bry sig om amerikansk skuld och att den amerikanska regeringen höjer räntorna?
┈➤ Betyder inflation att du måste höja räntorna?
Brother Bee har analyserat otaliga gånger: inflation orsakad av oljepriser kan inte helt botas med räntehöjningar.
Räntehöjningar tjänar främst till att dämpa förväntningarna på löneökningar och dämpa "löneinflationsspiralen".
Därför kan förväntningar på räntehöjningar också ha denna effekt.
Om räntorna ska höjas i september kräver fortfarande två månaders data att följa, vilket är juli och augusti. Om KPI inte försämras kan Fed förbli oförändrad.
┈➤ Slutliga tankar
Å ena sidan tror Brother Bee inte att en räntehöjning i september är en självklarhet. Med den här typen av relation mellan Federal Reserve och den federala regeringen, skulle de verkligen inte ha några betänkligheter mot att USA underkastar sig USA?
Å andra sidan har förväntningarna på en räntehöjning i september redan inräknats, och ökningen av amerikanska statsobligationsräntor innebär i praktiken att marknaden redan höjer räntorna.
Brother Bee anser att balansräkningsminskning kan vara mer lämpligt än att höja räntorna.
Eftersom balansräkningsminskning också medför åtstramningar av förväntningarna, hjälper det till att dämpa lönetillväxtförväntningarna och bidrar till att dämpa "löneinflationsspiralen". Om man tittar på den månatliga och månadsvisa tillväxttakten för amerikanska löner visar lönerna ingen accelererad trend.
Skillnaden mellan balansräkningsminskning och räntehöjningar är att varje räntehöjning är en engångsåtstramning, medan balansräkningsminskningen sker gradvis.
Vid balansräkningsminskningen löses de amerikanska statsobligationer som innehas av Federal Reserve automatiskt in vid förfall och köps inte längre fullt ut. Detta minskar gradvis efterfrågan på amerikanska statsobligationer och har en relativt mindre effekt.
Walshs ursprungliga hållning var att först krympa balansräkningen och sedan sänka räntorna.
Detta är förstås Feng Xiongs personliga åsikt; Feds beslut kan fortfarande bero på relationen mellan USA och Iran och inflationstrenderna i juli-augusti.
30-Year Treasury Yield Keeps Climbing, Intensifying Pressure on Crypto Markets
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield remains near multi-year highs, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could stay elevated for longer. The bond market is once again becoming the dominant macro force driving risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are among the biggest casualties.
For $BTC, $ETH, and the broader crypto market, higher long-term yields mean tighter financial conditions and a rising opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Institutional investors are increasingly rotating capital into government bonds that now offer attractive risk-adjusted returns, reducing liquidity available for digital assets.
The situation is becoming more concerning as markets reassess the likelihood of a prolonged restrictive Federal Reserve policy. If long-dated Treasury yields continue to climb or remain elevated, selling pressure could spread further across technology stocks and speculative assets, limiting the upside for both crypto and growth equities.
In the near term, the U.S. bond market may matter more than crypto-specific headlines. Until long-term yields begin to ease, any rebound in $BTC, $ETH, and altcoins is likely to face significant resistance, with macroeconomic headwinds continuing to dominate investor sentiment.
Follow me for the latest updates and in-depth discussions on the Crypto and Wall Street markets so you never miss the next major move.
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The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again.
JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%).
The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September.
Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision.
Two things pull the other way:
· US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver
· The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher
Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal.
So the tug-of-war is playing out live:
· "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds
· ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC
The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included.
When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now?
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#30YrYieldTopOrStart 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.27% — highest since 2007. And it's trending #1 for a reason 👀
JPMorgan didn't wait around. Pulled their Fed hike call forward to December, raised end-2026 targets: 10-year to 4.85%, 30-year to 5.40%. The long-end repricing is happening fast 📈
Two things could push back. US-Iran talks sent oil down 7%+ intraday — removes one inflation pillar. And Japan potentially selling Treasuries for yen intervention would usually spike yields, but Bessent's FIMA repo mechanism lets Tokyo access dollars without dumping bonds. That's a meaningful buffer 🤔
5.3% is the number to watch. Break above that and the repricing accelerates 🫠
30-year at 5.27%, JPM now calling a December hike, oil moving 7% in a day on geopolitics — is this the top of the yield move, or just the beginning? 👇
🚨 Something unusual is happening in markets: bonds are flashing caution, yet risk assets keep pushing higher.
The 30-year Treasury yield reaching levels not seen in nearly two decades would normally make traders nervous. But instead of a broad risk-off reaction, markets are showing something different — a possible repricing of fiscal reality.
Amazon’s earnings reaction tells the same story:
❌ Guidance disappoints
✅ Stock jumps 9%
That’s a reminder that positioning, expectations, and sentiment can sometimes overpower the headlines.
For crypto, the signal is interesting.
Historically, a surge in long-term yields while BTC holds above $63K would often be viewed as a warning sign. But this time, the relationship looks less straightforward.
If markets are reacting less to short-term rates and more to long-term concerns around debt and deficits, scarce assets could tell a different story.
The thesis isn’t confirmed yet.
But one thing is clear:
Price action is refusing to follow the old script.
Don’t just watch the news. Watch what capital is actually doing.
Liquidity, positioning, and market behavior often reveal the real story before the headlines do.
Just market observation — not financial advice.
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis #OKXOrbit
#DailyOrbit
🚨 Crypto traders are watching charts… but the bigger signal may be coming from the bond market. 👀
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has reached its highest level in nearly two decades — a macro development that could influence crypto’s next major move.
Why does it matter?
When long-term “risk-free” yields rise, investors often become more selective.
Higher yields can lead to:
📉 Higher borrowing costs
📉 Tighter liquidity conditions
📉 Lower risk appetite
Historically, these conditions have created pressure on $BTC, $ETH, and altcoins as capital rotates toward safer, income-generating assets.
But the picture isn’t one-sided.
If rising yields reflect inflation concerns or uncertainty around monetary policy, Bitcoin’s scarcity narrative could become stronger as some investors look for alternative assets.
The key factors to watch:
📌 Interest rate expectations
📌 ETF flows
📌 Global liquidity conditions
📌 Federal Reserve policy
The 30-year Treasury yield hitting a 19-year high is more than a bond market headline.
It’s a macro signal.
For crypto investors, tracking Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed decisions may be just as important as watching $BTC and $ETH charts.
Follow liquidity. Watch macro. Stay prepared. 📊
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #ColdcardBTCExploit #Ethereum11Years
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🚨 The Bond Market Is Flashing an Important Signal
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, showing that investors are demanding higher returns to hold long-term government bonds.
Several factors are contributing to this move:
📈 Inflation remains a concern.
🏦 Expectations are growing that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates elevated for longer.
💵 Higher yields translate into increased borrowing costs across the economy.
For crypto, rising bond yields can reduce investors' appetite for risk, potentially creating short-term pressure on digital assets. At the same time, any shift in expectations around future Fed policy could increase volatility across both traditional and crypto markets.
Keeping an eye on bond yields may provide valuable insight into broader market sentiment throughout August.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #SpaceXUnlockLooms #EarningsWeekAhead #Crypto #Bitcoin #MacroEconomy
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
#SpaceXUnlockLooms
#EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC $ETH
$BEAT
Crypto traders are watching Bitcoin and Ethereum. But the bigger signal might be coming from the bond market.
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has just climbed to its highest level in nearly two decades, creating one of the most important macro developments of the year.
Why does this matter for crypto?
When long-term “risk-free” yields move above 5%, investors often become more selective. If government bonds can offer attractive returns, demand for higher-risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—can take a hit.
The first impact is on liquidity.
Higher Treasury yields typically mean:
Higher borrowing costs
Tighter financial conditions
Lower appetite for risk
Historically, these conditions have created headwinds for $BTC, $ETH, and the broader altcoin market as investors move toward safer, income-generating assets.
But the picture isn’t completely negative.
If higher yields are being driven by inflation concerns or declining confidence in long-term monetary policy, Bitcoin could regain attention as a scarce digital asset that some investors view as a potential hedge.
In the short term, volatility is likely to continue as markets react to:
Interest rate expectations
ETF flows
Overall liquidity conditions
Strong Treasury yields may keep pressure on risk assets, but any signs of easing inflation or a shift in Federal Reserve policy could quickly change sentiment.
The 30-year Treasury yield reaching a 19-year high is more than just a bond market milestone.
It’s a macro signal that could shape the next major move across digital assets.
For crypto investors, watching Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar, and Fed decisions may be just as important as tracking $BTC and $ETH.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh #ColdcardSeedFlaw #Ethereum11Years $BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH $SNDK
🚨 THE BOND MARKET IS FLASHING WARNING SIGNALS
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has climbed to a 19-year high, indicating that investors are demanding higher returns to hold long-term U.S. debt.
This reflects concerns regarding:
📈 Inflation potentially remaining elevated.
🏦 The Federal Reserve potentially keeping interest rates high for longer.
💵 Continued increases in borrowing costs.
For the crypto market, rising bond yields typically cause capital flows to become more cautious in the short term. However, if this pressure compels the Fed to take more decisive action in upcoming meetings, volatility for BTC and the broader market could be significant.
👀 This is a macro indicator that every crypto investor should monitor throughout August.
#30YYieldAt19YHigh
The headlines say "be careful." The market says "buy anyway."
That's what makes this moment so interesting.
Something unusual is happening beneath the surface.
The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to levels not seen in nearly two decades—a move that would normally pressure stocks and crypto. Yet instead of a broad risk-off reaction, risk assets continue to push higher.
Then there's Amazon.
❌ Weak guidance.
✅ Stock surges 9%.
It's another reminder that markets don't move on headlines alone. They move on expectations, positioning, and where capital is already sitting.
For crypto, the message is worth paying attention to.
In previous cycles, rising long-term yields while $BTC held above key levels would have been a clear warning sign. This time, the relationship looks different.
If investors are becoming more concerned about long-term debt and fiscal sustainability than short-term interest rates, scarce assets like Bitcoin could begin trading under a different narrative.
Is that thesis confirmed?
Not yet.
But one thing is becoming hard to ignore:
Price isn't following the old playbook anymore.
Don't just read the headlines.
Watch where liquidity is flowing, how traders are positioned, and how price reacts when the news hits.
That's often where the real story begins.
Just market observations—not financial advice. ⚡
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #MarketAnalysis #OKXOrbit #DailyOrbit
The market just delivered one of its biggest contradictions yet—and smart money has already made its choice.
Brothers, we're looking at two completely different stories unfolding at the same time.
The 30-year US Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%, its highest level since 2007. Three rate hikes, resilient domestic demand, and a 20% surge in oil prices over the past month have all strengthened expectations that higher rates could stay around for longer.
At the very same time, June's PCE posted its first negative reading since 2020, suggesting inflation is finally cooling.
Two major signals. Two opposite directions.
So what did the market believe?
Capital answered with action. Treasury yields kept climbing without looking back.
The message is clear: compared with a single month of negative PCE data, investors are paying far more attention to rising oil prices and strong demand. A 20% jump in oil prices isn't just another statistic—it reinforces expectations of future input inflation.
With long-term Treasury yields pushing toward 5.3%, the cost of capital over the coming years is moving higher.
For the crypto market, this doesn't mean the bull cycle is over. It means the road ahead is likely to be more volatile. The destination hasn't changed—only the speed of the journey has.
$SNDK $SKHYNIX $GRVT
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