#ISMBeatYieldsFall
About ISMBeatYieldsFall
Data backs a hike, yet yields are falling. US July ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, its highest since May 2022, above the 54.0 expected and a seventh straight month of expansion; CME now puts a 25bp September hike at 67.2%. But the long end diverged: after US-Iran returned to talks and oil fell over 7% in a day, 10-year futures rose 13 ticks and the 30-year 22 ticks Aug 3. Bessent urged the Fed to expand liquidity for the yen. Fundamentals up, geopolitics down, 30-year near 5.3% undecided.
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E puțin amuzant — cel mai clasic exemplu din istorie: randamentul titlurilor de stat pe 30 de ani este chiar în iunie 2007, deci există o criză economică?
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Mai multe persoane importante au comparat randamentul titlurilor de stat pe 30 de ani cu iunie 2027, apoi au spus că ultima dată a fost o criză economică rapidă.
Întrebarea este că ambele randamente sunt de 5,27%. Într-un mediu în care ratele dobânzilor sunt 3,6% și 5,25%, pot fi ele la fel?
┈➤ Randamentele pe termen lung ale trezoreriei SUA vs. rata efectivă a fondurilor federale
Rata efectivă a fondurilor federale apare, în general, atunci când băncile comerciale au rezerve insuficiente în timpul decontarelor. Aceasta este rata dobânzii pe termen scurt.
Deoarece randamentele pe termen lung ale titlurilor de stat americane au cicluri lungi, ele necesită o compensație pe termen mai mare, astfel că, în condiții normale, randamentele pe termen lung ale titlurilor de stat americane sunt mai mari decât rata efectivă a fondurilor federale (denumită în continuare rata dobânzii).
┈➤2026 vs 2017
În iunie 2017, rata dobânzii era de 5,25%, iar la acea vreme, randamentul de 5,27% al titlurilor de stat americane era ridicat, asociat cu ratele mai mari ale dobânzii.
De fapt, în jurul lunii iulie 2016~iunie 2017, randamentul titlurilor de stat pe 30 de ani era mai mic decât rata dobânzii, iar această perioadă a fost considerată o inversare a randamentului.
În iunie 2017, randamentul obligațiunilor de stat americane pe 30 de ani tocmai a revenit aproape de ratele dobânzii. La acea vreme, randamentele titlurilor de stat americane nu erau ridicate în raport cu ratele dobânzilor.
Fie că a fost vorba de inversarea înainte de iunie 2017 sau de scăderea randamentelor titlurilor de stat pe 30 de ani după iunie 2017, ambele reflectă lipsa de ofertă a titlurilor de stat pe 30 de ani, determinată de reduceri de dobândă și așteptări de recesiune.
În 2026, cu o rată a dobânzii de 3,6% și randamente ale titlurilor de stat pe 30 de ani care depășesc cu mult ratele anterioare, tendința este ascendentă.
În prezent, există așteptări privind creșterea dobânzilor, iar nu există tendința ca titlurile de stat americane pe termen lung să depășească oferta, așa că este foarte probabil să nu existe așteptări de recesiune.
Motivul pentru care se spune că este foarte probabil este că titlurile de stat americane cresc prea rapid și implică anumite riscuri, astfel încât motivația de a cumpăra titluri de stat ca refugiu sigur ar putea scădea. Totuși, un alt activ cu atribute de refugiu sigur — aurul — este de asemenea în scădere în acest moment. Pe scurt, există o probabilitate mare ca nu să existe așteptări de recesiune.
tvbee
#30年期美债收益率创19年新高
Riscurile obligațiunilor de stat americane sunt deja vizibile cu ochiul liber, deci va crește cu adevărat Fed ratele dobânzilor în septembrie?
Creșterea ratelor dobânzilor ar crește randamentele Trezoreriei SUA și ar crește costurile de finanțare ale Trezoreriei SUA.
┈➤ "Ambiguitatea" dintre Rezerva Federală și guvernul federal
Deși Rezerva Federală este independentă, relația dintre Fed și Departamentul Trezoreriei este, de asemenea, oarecum ambiguă.
╰✦ Rezerva Federală trimite profiturile nete către guvernul federal
Pe de o parte, deși Fed este autosuficientă, trebuie să predea profiturile nete rămase guvernului SUA.
Guvernul SUA nu va oferi nicio finanțare Rezervei Federale. Mai mult, după acoperirea costurilor, plata dividendelor băncilor comerciale membre, acoperirea pierderilor anterioare și câștigurile reținute la statut, Fed va transfera marea majoritate a profiturilor nete către Trezorerie.
╰✦ Majoritatea câștigurilor Fed provin din titluri de stat americane
Pe de altă parte, majoritatea câștigurilor Fed provin din deținerea obligațiunilor de Trezorerie emise de Trezorerie (în condiții normale).
Rezerva Federală a eliberat lichiditate în dolari prin achiziționarea de titluri de stat americane și titluri garantate cu ipoteci (MBS),
Cumpărarea/reducerea deținerilor de titluri de stat americane este una dintre principalele forme de QE/QT. Prin urmare, Fed a deținut de mult timp o cantitate mare de titluri de stat americane, iar dobânda din Trezoreria este principala sursă a randamentelor Fed.
În plus, atunci când Fed cumpără MBS în timpul QE și continuă să le dețină o perioadă după aceea, MBS poate genera și venituri din dobânzi. Dar, în majoritatea anilor, titlurile de stat americane câștigă mai multe dobânzi. Ca bancă a băncilor comerciale, Rezerva Federală oferă reduceri, credite și alte servicii și poate, de asemenea, să genereze randamente. Dar, cu excepția cazului în care este în timpul unei crize, această parte a venitului este de obicei mai mică.
Așadar, per ansamblu, titlurile de stat ale SUA reprezintă una dintre principalele surse de venit pentru Rezerva Federală.
Așadar, Rezerva Federală nu va ține cont de datoria SUA și de creșterea dobânzilor de către guvernul SUA?
┈➤ Inflația înseamnă că trebuie să crești ratele dobânzilor?
Fratele Albină a analizat de nenumărate ori: inflația cauzată de prețurile petrolului nu poate fi complet vindecată prin creșterea ratelor dobânzilor.
Majorările de dobândă servesc în principal pentru a reduce așteptările privind creșterea salariilor și pentru a tempera spirala "salarii-inflație".
Prin urmare, așteptările privind creșterea ratei dobânzii pot avea, de asemenea, acest efect.
Dacă va crește dobânzile în septembrie necesită încă două luni de date de urmărit, adică iulie și august. Dacă IPC nu se va agrava, Fed ar putea rămâne neschimbat.
┈➤ Gânduri finale
Pe de o parte, fratele Bee nu crede că o creștere a dobânzilor în septembrie este o concluzie previzibilă. Cu un astfel de tip de relație între Federal Reserve și guvernul federal, chiar nu ar avea rezerve față de supunerea SUA față de SUA?
Pe de altă parte, așteptările privind o creștere a dobânzii în septembrie s-au conturat deja, iar creșterea randamentelor titlurilor de stat americane înseamnă practic că piața deja crește ratele.
Fratele Bee consideră că reducerea bilanțului ar putea fi mai potrivită decât creșterea ratelor dobânzilor.
Deoarece reducerea bilanțului aduce și așteptări tot mai stricte, ajută la suprimarea așteptărilor privind creșterea salariilor și ajută la limitarea spiralei "salarii-inflație". Privind rata de creștere lunară și lunară a salariilor din SUA, salariile nu arată o tendință accelerată.
Diferența dintre reducerea bilanțului și majorarea dobânzilor este că fiecare majorare a ratei este o înăsprire unică, în timp ce reducerea bilanțului este graduală.
În timpul reducerii bilanțului, titlurile de stat deținute de Federal Reserve sunt răscumpărate automat la scadență și nu mai sunt cumpărate integral. Acest lucru reduce treptat cererea pentru titluri de stat americane și are un impact relativ mai mic.
Poziția inițială a lui Walsh a fost să reducă mai întâi bilanțul, apoi să reducă ratele dobânzilor.
Desigur, aceasta este opinia personală a lui Feng Xiong; decizia Fed ar putea depinde încă de relația SUA-Iran și de tendințele inflației din iulie-august.
30-Year Treasury Yield: Peak or the Start of a Bigger Shift?
The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level since 2007, becoming one of the most closely watched macro indicators across global financial markets. Far more than just a bond market statistic, the surge signals that borrowing costs remain elevated, keeping pressure on risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies
.
With the 30-year yield briefly surpassing 5.27%, investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury's expanding bond issuance to finance government spending has added further upward pressure on long-term yields, encouraging capital to flow into fixed-income assets rather than speculative investments.
For the crypto market, the implications are mixed. In the short term, elevated Treasury yields typically reduce liquidity for risk assets, weighing on $BTC and the broader altcoin market as investors seek safer returns. However, if upcoming economic data point to easing inflation or slowing growth, long-term yields could begin to retreat, potentially creating a more supportive environment for digital assets.
For now, the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield remains one of the most influential macro indicators for global markets. Its next move could shape the direction of both Wall Street and the crypto market, making it a key metric every investor should monitor closely in the weeks ahead.
$BTC $ETH
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#TrumpMedia2628BTC
#OKXOrbitTopics
#30-year US Treasury, is it the top or a new starting point?
It sounds ridiculous, but the 30-year US Treasury yield has hit 5.27%, a 19-year high, yet the Federal Reserve Chair remains silent.
In the past, when trading crypto or stocks, we watched the Fed's moves closely. Now, Washington has completely let go, not even bothering to provide forward guidance. The US Treasury market is left to price itself blindly. Yields keep rising, bond prices keep falling, and holders of long-term bonds are losing so badly their own mothers wouldn't recognize them, all while worrying daily about the US Treasury issuing new debt to crash the market.
Many are shouting "historic bottom, buy blindly," but I advise you not to get carried away. Low rates used to be due to globalization dividends, stable inflation, and buyers stepping in. Now, all three are gone. With $40 trillion in US debt piled up, annual deficits and issuance, foreigners have stopped buying, the Fed has stopped buying, and you want to jump in as the buyer?
For us crypto traders, it's even more realistic: a risk-free rate above 5% means isn't it better to just hold cash and earn interest? Who wants to take risks in highly volatile assets? The reason BTC can't hold above 65,000 is rooted in this. As long as long-term bond yields don't turn down, risk assets won't have a big rally, at best just choppy consolidation.
Finally, I want to say: it's too early to talk about the top; we're only halfway up the mountain.
Many treat 5.3% as a historic peak to buy the dip, but to me, that's just stubbornly clinging to the past. $BTC
#DailyOrbit
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again.
JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%).
The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September.
Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision.
Two things pull the other way:
· US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver
· The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher
Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal.
So the tug-of-war is playing out live:
· "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds
· ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC
The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included.
When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now?
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
📊 Macro Watch: 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.27%—its highest level since 2007.
JPMorgan now expects the Fed could hike rates as early as December, while raising its long-term Treasury yield forecasts, reinforcing the view that higher yields may persist.
At the same time:
🛢️ Falling oil prices could ease inflation pressure.
💴 US-Japan currency coordination may influence Treasury demand without triggering large bond sales.
For $BTC, the picture is mixed:
🔹 Short term: Higher Treasury yields increase the appeal of "risk-free" assets, creating headwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin.
🔹 Medium term: If persistently high rates begin to weaken economic growth or confidence in sovereign debt, demand for scarce, non-sovereign assets such as Bitcoin could strengthen over time.
The 5.3% area on the 30-year Treasury may become one of the key macro levels to watch this month—not just for bonds, but for crypto as well.
Macro matters. Watch liquidity, yields, and price action together.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead
📊 Everyone is watching Bitcoin’s price, but the real macro story is happening in bonds.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just hit 5.27%. That’s the highest we’ve seen since 2007. When you can lock in 5% plus on long-dated government debt, every risk asset has to work harder to earn capital. That includes crypto.
The debate now is whether the Fed holds rates higher for longer, or pushes them up again if inflation refuses to cool. But this isn’t only about the Fed.
There are deeper forces keeping long-term yields up.
The U.S. deficit keeps expanding.
Treasury issuance is rising to fund spending.
Corporations are also issuing a lot of debt and competing for the same pool of investor dollars.
These are structural, not one-meeting problems. They will shape markets for quarters, not days.
At the same time there are offsets.
Oil prices coming down should help inflation ease and take pressure off rates.
And Japan is a wild card. If they intervene in the yen it could shake global bond markets and change demand for Treasuries.
So why does this matter for crypto.
Even with yields this high, Bitcoin has stayed strong.
Spot ETFs are still pulling in institutional money.
Long-term holders keep adding.
Key support levels have held instead of breaking.
The next step is simple. Bitcoin needs to take back major resistance to confirm a broader bull trend.
Right now the market is caught between two forces.
Higher yields make bonds more attractive.
But ETF inflows and real institutional demand keep strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term case.
Whichever side wins will likely set the tone for both traditional markets and digital assets.
Keep your eyes on macro. Watch liquidity. Let price confirm the story before you commit.
NFA. DYOR.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#EarningsWeekAhead #USJapanYenIntervention #30YrYieldTopOrStart $SOL $GIGGLE $GRVT
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield just reached 5.27%, its highest level since 2007.
Why does that matter?
Think of investing like choosing between two jobs.
🏦 One job pays a guaranteed 5% with almost no risk (U.S. Treasuries).
🚀 The other could pay much more—but you could also lose money (stocks and crypto).
When the safe option starts paying over 5%, investors become much pickier about taking risks.
That's why higher Treasury yields can pull money away from assets like Bitcoin and tech stocks.
At the same time, JPMorgan now expects the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates sooner than previously expected, which keeps pressure on risk assets.
But there are other forces at work:
🛢️ Falling oil prices could help reduce inflation, easing some pressure on markets.
🇯🇵 Japan's currency intervention could push Treasury yields even higher if it involves selling U.S. bonds.
Despite all of this, Bitcoin has remained resilient.
📈 Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract investor money.
💰 Institutional demand hasn't disappeared.
⚠️ However, Bitcoin still needs to reclaim the $65K–$70K area to strengthen the bullish outlook.
Right now, the market is a tug-of-war:
🏦 Higher bond yields attract investors seeking safer returns.
₿ ETF inflows and long-term buyers continue supporting Bitcoin.
The next few weeks will show which force is stronger.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #ETFs #Macro #30YrYieldTopOrStart #EarningsWeekAhead #CLARITYActVoteWatch
The 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.27%, its highest since 2007.
When "risk-free" money pays north of 5%, every risk asset, including crypto, has to earn its place all over again.
JPMorgan just pulled its Fed hike call forward from H2 2027 to this December, and nudged its end-2026 yield targets higher, with the 10-year now seen near 4.85% (from 4.70%) and the 30-year near 5.40% (from 5.20%).
The Fed held in July, but three officials dissented in favor of a hike, and the market is now pricing one as soon as September.
Here's what most headlines miss. This is not just about the Fed. The long end is climbing because investors are demanding a bigger term premium for US fiscal risk, with expected fiscal expansion widening the deficit further, plus a wave of Big Tech issuing their own bonds soaking up the same dollars. That is a slower, stickier force than any single rate decision.
Two things pull the other way:
· US-Iran talks knocked oil down over 7% intraday, cooling the biggest inflation driver
· The US-Japan yen intervention adds a twist, since Japan selling Treasuries to fund it could push yields even higher
Now the part that matters for us. Even with bonds paying 5%+, crypto has not folded. BTC is holding near $63K, and US spot Bitcoin ETFs just logged four straight days of inflows, roughly $132M on Friday alone. The catch: BTC is still below its major moving averages, and analysts see $65K to $70K as the resistance zone it needs to reclaim to confirm any real reversal.
So the tug-of-war is playing out live:
· "Risk-free" yields pulling capital toward cash and bonds
· ETF demand quietly pulling it back into BTC
The long end sits right around 5.3%, a level many analysts now treat as the valuation anchor for risk assets this month, BTC included.
When "risk-free" bonds pay 5%+, how are you thinking about the balance between cash, yield, and crypto right now?
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #DailyOrbit #EarningsWeekAhead #KoreaChipSelloff
📊 While most traders are watching Bitcoin, one of the biggest stories is unfolding in the bond market.
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 5.27%—its highest level since 2007.
When investors can earn more than 5% from government bonds, every risk asset—including crypto—has to compete harder for capital.
Recent forecasts from major financial institutions point to the possibility of even higher long-term yields, while markets continue debating whether another Fed rate hike could arrive in the coming months.
But this isn't just about the Federal Reserve.
Long-term yields are also being pushed higher by:
📌 Growing U.S. fiscal deficits
📌 Increased government borrowing
📌 Heavy corporate bond issuance competing for investor capital
These are structural forces that can influence markets well beyond a single Fed meeting.
There are also offsets worth watching:
• Lower oil prices could help reduce inflation pressures.
• Currency interventions, particularly involving the Japanese yen, may add further volatility to global bond markets.
Why crypto investors should care:
Despite rising yields, Bitcoin has remained relatively resilient.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue attracting capital, and BTC has managed to defend important support levels.
The next challenge is clear:
Bitcoin still needs to reclaim key resistance before a broader bullish trend can be confirmed.
Right now, the market is balancing two powerful forces:
🔹 Higher bond yields pulling capital toward traditional assets.
🔹 Continued institutional demand supporting Bitcoin.
Whichever force wins could shape the next major move across both traditional finance and crypto.
Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
#DailyOrbit #BTC #ETH #Macro #Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets
#30YrYieldTopOrStart #USJapanYenIntervention #EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC $ETH $SOL#DailyOrbit
🚨 MARKET UPDATE
BofA: Dollar Weakens as Fed Uncertainty Fuels Inflation Concerns 🏦📉
💵 Dollar Under Pressure:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) declined around 1.4% after the July FOMC meeting, as uncertainty surrounding Fed policy weighed on sentiment. However, firm 2-year Treasury yields suggest investors remain unconvinced that rate cuts are imminent.
📈 Long-Term Inflation Expectations Rising:
Yields on the 10-year and 30-year Treasuries continue moving higher alongside rising 5y5y inflation expectations, indicating markets are increasingly concerned about persistent inflation and the possibility of policy missteps.
⚠️ Why It Matters:
Higher long-term yields run counter to efforts to reduce government borrowing costs. A steeper yield curve may reflect weakening confidence in the current policy outlook and could increase pressure on the Federal Reserve if bond market volatility persists.
Markets across $BTC, $ETH, $XAU, $SOL, and $HYPE will be watching upcoming economic data and Fed signals closely.
#30YrYieldTopOrStart
#USJapanYenIntervention
#USJapanYenIntervention
#EarningsWeekAhead
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
I am Cige. The 30-year US Treasury yield has reached 5.27%, hitting a new high since 2007. After breaking through the 2019 ceiling, the market is fiercely debating whether this is the top or a new starting point.
JPMorgan was the first to take a stance, moving up the Fed rate hike timing forecast from the second half of 2027 to December this year, and raising the 10-year yield forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.85% and the 30-year to 5.40%. This target level confirms the judgment of a new starting point. Two other variables create counteracting forces: the US and Iran returning to the negotiating table caused oil prices to plunge more than 7% in a single day, loosening the strongest pillar driving inflation expectations; the US-Japan joint currency defense introduced a technical variable—if Japan sells US Treasuries to raise intervention funds, it will push up long-end yields, but the FIMA repo tool named by Bessen allows Japan to obtain dollars without selling bonds, buffering potential pressure on US Treasuries from currency defense. Rate hike pricing is moving up, oil price expectations are moving down, and intervention financing is pending. The directional choice around 5.3% for the 30-year remains the valuation anchor for risk assets in August.
The impact on BTC is twofold. In the short term, the surge in long-term rates directly suppresses risk asset valuations, and BTC, as a high-beta asset, is under pressure. Rising US Treasury yields mean increased relative attractiveness of the dollar, causing some funds to flow back from risk assets to bonds. If yields continue to rise, BTC may test previous low areas. In the medium term, the 30-year yield hitting a new high since 2019 is itself a signal. When the world's safest asset starts offering over 5% risk-free returns, it means the holding cost of dollar credit is rising. If rates continue to rise and begin to undermine economic growth, the logic of dollar credit erosion will ultimately strengthen demand for non-sovereign asset
Cige has finished speaking. Think it over. #30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ $BTC $ETH $SNDK