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Is SpaceX safe just because it rose 6%? Last night, $SPCX surged from around $105 to $116, finally closing at $114.53, up nearly 6%. This bullish candle is strong, but I think it's still too early to call it a reversal. Tonight is SpaceX's first quarterly report since going public, but the real challenge lies ahead: on August 6, up to 911.5 million old shares will become eligible for sale. Based on the current stock price, this corresponds to a market value of about $104.4 billion. To be clear, the unlocking is not a new issuance, nor does it mean these shares will definitely be sold. It won't increase the total share capital out of thin air; what changes is the supply of tradable shares in the market. Currently, SpaceX's float is about 640 million shares, and the shares to be unlocked exceed the current float. If all enter the market, the tradable supply could theoretically increase by about 142%. This is the biggest pressure after the earnings report. SpaceX's financials are interesting. In 2025, revenue is $18.674 billion, up 33.2% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA reached $6.584 billion, and operating cash flow was $6.785 billion. Looking at these alone, it doesn't seem like a poorly performing company. But on the other hand, the net loss for the year was $4.937 billion. Adding up the data disclosed by the three business segments, capital expenditures in 2025 have already exceeded $20.7 billion. The money is mainly burned on Starship, the Starlink satellite network, and AI data centers. Among them, the connectivity business where Starlink operates is actually quite profitable: annual revenue of $11.387 billion, operating profit of $4.423 billion. The real drag is the AI business, with an operating loss of $6.355 billion in 2025. So tonight, don't just focus on whether revenue beats expectations. More importantly, watch whether Starlink's profits can continue to grow, whether the burn rate of AI and Starship slows down, and whether management What do you think? $SPCX #财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴 #dailyorbit#ISMBeatYieldsFall #KoreaETFVolDown90