TraderS | 缺德道人
宏观 × 美股 × Crypto 交易员 拆解美联储、战争与全球资金流 提前捕捉 美股 / 原油 / BTC / 金银 / 风险资产拐点 和读者一起看金融风暴 🌪 推特同名TraderS | 缺德道人，账号Trader_S18
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After Bitcoin dropped to 80,000 last year and then rebounded sharply, New York Fed President Williams came out to release information. The Fed has canceled the original forward guidance and gradually evolved into using voting distributions and regional Fed presidents' hints as alternative guidance. The advantage of this approach is distributed responsibility; if any unexpected news shocks the market, no one can be held accountable. However, this news flash is actually rehashing old news, with the source being an interview from last Friday.
Based on his past record, he seems more like a forerunner for signaling, and Friday's speech was essentially explaining the reason why the FOMC held steady this time. It follows the typical approach of shifting responsibility or decision-making power to the data, thereby distancing the Fed from responsibility in case of market turmoil.
From Trump's perspective, ensuring a steady rise in the stock market before the midterm elections is definitely the best plan. Theoretically, what he can do is to halt actions on Iran and tariffs to reduce inflation. Given that he recently secured quite a bit of money from Japan and South Korea, temporarily easing off on oil and taxes also has an economic basis. But practically, tariffs are one of his governing foundations and cannot be removed, and Iran won't allow easing on oil. So ultimately, it comes down to using the money harvested overseas to provide welfare and buy votes.
At 9:55, Musk once again used his words to squeeze the shorts. Let's see if the shorts on SPCX dare to bet on the earnings report.
TraderS | 缺德道人
After SpaceX hit a historic low of 104.83 just after the market opened, it quickly rebounded back above 112. From the market language perspective, this should be the last time before the earnings report to sweep the long position stop-loss zone.
There is still one and a half full trading days left until the after-hours earnings report on August 4th. If the earnings report is excellent due to the rumored steady growth in Starlink subscriptions, combined with the huge unrealized gains from the previous 200 million shares of short borrowings, the demand for short covering and risk hedging will also be strong.
It is said that the cost basis for these 200 million short shares is around 140, so taking profits now would be very considerable. The only thing determining the market now is the earnings report. If the data exceeds expectations so much that it overshadows the massive unlocking coming on the 6th, then on the 5th there is a chance for a short squeeze jump above 130.
The definition of this outperformance is whether Starlink can reach $3.82 billion in revenue and $1.42 billion in operating profit, and whether the AI business’s approximately $10.2 billion capital expenditure has started to generate sufficient income.
From the data, Starlink had about 10.3 million users at the end of Q1, nearly doubling year-over-year, but ARPU dropped nearly 25%.
The premise to ignite a short squeeze is: revenue and profit margins significantly exceed expectations, AI revenue is realized, capital expenditure and cash burn do not continue to spiral out of control, and management provides credible third-party computing power orders and future guidance. If it can close above 110 today and recover to 113.5–115 before tomorrow’s earnings, that would be a relatively good scenario.
Whether my SPCX position can break even depends on this earnings report; if it can rebound above the issue price, I can also stop my losses.
$SPCX
After SpaceX hit a historic low of 104.83 just after the market opened, it quickly rebounded back above 112. From the market language perspective, this should be the last time before the earnings report to sweep the long position stop-loss zone.
There is still one and a half full trading days left until the after-hours earnings report on August 4th. If the earnings report is excellent due to the rumored steady growth in Starlink subscriptions, combined with the huge unrealized gains from the previous 200 million shares of short borrowings, the demand for short covering and risk hedging will also be strong.
It is said that the cost basis for these 200 million short shares is around 140, so taking profits now would be very considerable. The only thing determining the market now is the earnings report. If the data exceeds expectations so much that it overshadows the massive unlocking coming on the 6th, then on the 5th there is a chance for a short squeeze jump above 130.
The definition of this outperformance is whether Starlink can reach $3.82 billion in revenue and $1.42 billion in operating profit, and whether the AI business’s approximately $10.2 billion capital expenditure has started to generate sufficient income.
From the data, Starlink had about 10.3 million users at the end of Q1, nearly doubling year-over-year, but ARPU dropped nearly 25%.
The premise to ignite a short squeeze is: revenue and profit margins significantly exceed expectations, AI revenue is realized, capital expenditure and cash burn do not continue to spiral out of control, and management provides credible third-party computing power orders and future guidance. If it can close above 110 today and recover to 113.5–115 before tomorrow’s earnings, that would be a relatively good scenario.
Whether my SPCX position can break even depends on this earnings report; if it can rebound above the issue price, I can also stop my losses.
$SPCX
Snapshot at 03 Aug 2026, 22:56
Today, after the Korean stock market opened, Samsung Hynix continued to decline. Whether it can stop falling depends on whether the US stock market performs well tonight. However, from the pre-market perspective, it continues the retracement trend seen in last Friday's US stocks and today's Korean stocks.
If this retracement does not go below last Thursday's low, the subsequent trend is more inclined to be a W-bottom retracement test. If it holds, it will be a W-bottom; if it doesn't hold, it will be a wedge-shaped decline. This will roughly replicate the trend of Bitcoin after October last year.
Although I also believe that the financial bubble speculation phase of storage has ended and has completely peaked, the story at the application layer is not over. After all, storage is not a MEME coin or just air. The big trend of AI applications is gradually becoming clear. If the fundamentals continue to be built over the next two to three years, there is still hope to return to previous highs.
From the market perspective alone, last week's rebound was the result of institutional entry, and the current decline is caused by retail investors rushing in late and exchanging hands with institutions. The current stage should be similar to the scenario after the gold and silver bubble burst and plunged at the beginning of the year, meaning there is no one-sided trend but rather a large cycle of wide fluctuations or a short cycle of zigzag movements. In other words, both bulls and bears can trade, but neither feels comfortable or smooth. $SKHYNIX $SKHY $MU
SPCX opened around 113, peaked at 115.03, and dropped to a low of 107.86. Although it hasn't yet broken the previous historical low of 107.01, it is less than $1 above it, which has limited technical significance. More importantly, the early session rebound to 115 was immediately sold back down to 107–109, indicating that the area near 115 remains a sell-off zone rather than a new buying zone.
Today, Micron and SanDisk fell about 5.2% and 4.1% respectively, indeed dragging down the storage sector; however, QQQ still rose slightly, RKLB only dropped about 1.4%, while SPCX fell over 3%, indicating that its own earnings report, unlocking, and valuation discount remain the dominant factors and it cannot be entirely blamed on the AI sector.
The current structure is very simple:
* Recover above 110 and preferably hold above 112–113: the 107–110 double bottom candidate remains valid;
* Close between 107–110: only a weak balance, with each repeated test, support will be consumed;
* Close below 107 and fail to recover 110 the next day: new low confirmed, with 105 and 100 becoming the main paths;
* Break through 115 again and then hold above 120: only then can it be considered a true transition from bottoming to recovery.
The earnings report after market close on August 4 and the potential share unlocking eligibility effective August 6 are both clear events, but the specific quality of the earnings and the actual volume of sales remain unknown. Active funds are likely to wait for the results rather than aggressively take positions now, so it is easier to maintain a low box between 107–115 before the earnings. SpaceX has confirmed it will release results after market close on August 4; the lock-up agreement stipulates that related shares can be transferred at the earliest on the second full trading day after the earnings report.
Therefore, the most critical point tonight is not "whether 107.01 is broken," but whether it can move away from 107–110 and recover 112–113. Closing near 108 only indicates that the bottom has not yet been broken; recovering above 113 means the buyers near 107 have truly won today's round of contention. $SPCX
Yesterday, I briefly discussed the geopolitical aspects of South Korea and Japan, and just one day later, both countries simultaneously intervened in the market. Everyone knows about the sharp rise in SK Hynix, but the yen exchange rate, which is closely watched less by the stock and crypto circles, also experienced intense fluctuations.
After last year's tariff war, the yen exchange rate surged from 140 towards 160+, recently reaching a high near 164. I remember a couple of years ago, I even bet with Ni Da @PhyrexNi on whether the yen exchange rate in October 2024 would be closer to 160 or 130. However, back then Japan still had some strength, and the yen was still fluctuating widely, which is completely different from the current one-sided depreciation trend.
The core issue for South Korea and Japan now is that their industrial chains are being dismantled by China and the US. Especially many of Japan's originally advantageous industries have been caught up by China, which has suppressed profit margins. Without external profits to exchange for dollars to replenish their own currency, combined with dual-use export bans aimed at breaking Japan's national fortune, the future outlook is bleak, and depreciation expectations are high.
Many say that the recent major stock market turmoil in South Korea is because money was taken by the US and technology was taken by China. While not entirely accurate, there is some truth to this.
First, the money was indeed taken. Despite the flight ban not being implemented, the rebound's strength mainly came from foreign capital. Data shows that today set a record for the largest single-day net foreign capital inflow, with SK Hynix at 3.59 trillion and Samsung at 2.10 trillion. After this bottom-fishing, local Korean capital control may further decline. In contrast, in the previous four trading days (24th-29th), foreign capital was a net seller of 11.95 trillion. They smashed first and then pulled back, striking decisively, leaving the Korean people with a lifetime of huge debts that are hard to repay, which is truly lamentable.
Technology itself is not directly taken away, but the severe damage to the "Three Seas" (Samsung, SK Hynix, and others) combined with repeated US demands to relocate factories objectively gave Chinese capital more time to catch up.
With the stock prices of the "Three Seas" falling and Changxin rising, a capital cost scissors gap has formed. The essence of the capital expenditure competition is decided by whose capital is cheaper, and this scissors gap daily prices the speed of "catch-up time" transfer.
The collapse of salaries and morale caused by the stock price plunge will accelerate engineers moving to Chinese capital. South Korea and China are geographically and culturally close, and China's visa-free policy for Koreans provides convenience. Engineers can even interview in Suzhou or Hefei without paperwork. In reality, cases of technology leaks by Korean prosecutors have never stopped.
From the perspective of the US dollar tide, there are few countries large enough to absorb and compensate for the US deficit, and China certainly will not rescue Japan. At least before Changxin conquers HBM, South Korea still belongs to the united front target of both pulling and fighting, so the injury might be lighter.
In summary, in this stock market crash, the US took away financing rights, pricing rights, major client orders, and increasing claims on future profits; China took away industrial profit margins and time to catch up technologically. South Korea and Japan still have factories, engineers, and core technologies but bear the highest capital expenditures, exchange rate volatility, and geopolitical costs. The intense fluctuations in the Korean stock market and the yen exchange rate reveal this truth.
#韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%，创历史最大单日涨幅 #日韩同日抛售美元护汇 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
TraderS | 缺德道人
Speaking of which, as someone who usually likes to follow geopolitics, finance, stock trading, and crypto trading, I really learned a lot and witnessed history in this wave of the Hynix ADR listing event.
Those who are a bit older should still remember the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when Korean housewives sold their gold jewelry to support the country.
This Hynix incident also feels like a case designed by the U.S. to take over Korea's quality assets.
Everyone is well aware of the current situation of the U.S.; its overall national strength has declined far more compared to 1997, and its approach can only become more unsightly.
While the Korean stock market is volatile, the yen exchange rate is also continuously dropping; breaking 165 is just a matter of time, and reaching 180 next year is basically inevitable.
Back to Samsung and Hynix, these two typical Korean companies have gradually lost equity control through several crises. This crisis is another good opportunity to tighten the noose.
Putting aside price fluctuations, the essence is that the U.S. needs to consume its allies' assets to cover its own deficits.
So besides the possible market rescue forces mentioned earlier, there may be news of U.S. capital acquisitions or injections later on. If that really happens, this story will be completely closed. By then, the stock price should truly start to reverse.
No one knows whether the current crisis limited to the storage sector will spread to the entire financial system and stock market. No one knows if this "Blue House Agreement" is similar to the "Plaza Accord" that caused Japan to lose thirty years. However, Korea's political structure determines that it will not fare well—not because of lack of effort, but because it is not allowed. $SKHYNIX $SKHY $MU #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入，财长为杠杆ETF道歉 #
News hype is something that is a mix of truth and falsehood, reality and illusion. Denying the spin-off of China is normal, but the merger has not been denied, and it can test the attitudes of China and the US, using falsehood to convey truth, attract attention, and draw traffic.
The Shanghai Gigafactory is Tesla's largest and most efficient factory globally, with an annual capacity of 950,000 vehicles, historically accounting for more than half of global deliveries, and Q2 exports still up by +32.8%. If the China business is truly spun off, it would be a huge negative for Tesla overall. $SPCX
TraderS | 缺德道人
You can check my previous series of posts about the SpaceX and Tesla merger. As someone who got stuck with $SPCX at 160, I've basically studied all the possible ways SPCX could surge. Indeed, losing money is what drives people to study hard.
In short, SPCX being relatively more expensive than TSLA is the best way to exchange shares, so the big trend for SPCX should be upward, while TSLA's trend should be downward.
However, the merger of the two giants won't happen that quickly; this topic will likely be hyped for at least a year or half a year for $SPCX
You can check my previous series of posts about the SpaceX and Tesla merger. As someone who got stuck with $SPCX at 160, I've basically studied all the possible ways SPCX could surge. Indeed, losing money is what drives people to study hard.
In short, SPCX being relatively more expensive than TSLA is the best way to exchange shares, so the big trend for SPCX should be upward, while TSLA's trend should be downward.
However, the merger of the two giants won't happen that quickly; this topic will likely be hyped for at least a year or half a year for $SPCX
Recently, the market's attention has been on storage. Tonight, the core PCE fell as expected, with logic similar to the previous CPI, both benefiting from the continuously declining oil prices in June.
However, since oil prices rebounded sharply in July, combined with the just-concluded hawkish FOMC, the actual impact of this PCE is limited.
But in any case, it's good data, just in time to support today's rebound in storage stocks, increasing the probability of a bottom rebound by +1 again
