Post

TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
Orbit Invited Creator
Show original
昨天简略的从地缘政治层面聊了下日韩,结果才一天日韩就同时救市,海力士大涨大家都知道了,日元汇率股圈币圈的都关注的比较少但同样激烈。 去年关税战之后,日元汇率从140朝着160+一路狂奔,近期最高点接近164,记得前年的时候我跟倪大 @PhyrexNi 还就日元汇率打过赌,赌2024年10月更靠近160还是130。不过那年日本尚有力量,日元也还处在宽幅震荡之间,跟现在一边倒的单边趋势贬值截然不同。 日韩现在的核心问题实际上还都是产业链在被中美拆解,尤其是日本原本的优势产业很多都被中国赶上后压低了利润率,没有外部利润换取美元回补本国货币。再加上朝着打断日本国运去的军民两用禁售,未来前景堪忧,贬值预期拉满。 韩国这波股市大震荡很多人说是钱被美国拿走,技术被中国拿走虽然不全对但也有一定道理。 首先钱应该是确实被拿走了,在禁空令并没有落地的情况下,反弹的力量主要来源于外资。数据显示,今天创下了历史最大单日外资净买入记录,其中海力士3.59万亿、三星2.10万亿。这波抄底后本土韩系资本控制力可能进一步下降。与之对比的是此前四个交易日(24-29日)外资是净卖出11.95万亿的,先砸后拉,手起刀落,韩国人民就背上了一生难以还清巨额债务,不得不令人唏嘘。 而技术不会直接被拿走,但是三海元气大伤叠加此前不断被美国要求迁移搬厂客观上给中资贡献了追赶时间。 三海股价下跌,长鑫上涨,此消彼长之间资本成本剪刀差就形成了,资本开支竞赛的胜负本质上由谁的资本更便宜决定,这个剪刀差每天都在标价“追赶时间”的转移速度。 伴随股价暴跌而来的薪酬崩塌+士气重伤会加速工程师向中资流动,中韩地理文化靠近,加上中国对韩免签政策更是提供了便利,工程师去苏州合肥面试连手续都不用办。现实中韩国检方的技术外泄案子也从来就没断过。 从美元潮汐角度看,体量大到吃掉就能补上美国亏空的国家本就不多,而中国一定不会救的就是日本了。起码在长鑫攻克HBM之前,韩国都还属于边拉边打的统战对象,受伤大概会轻一些。 总之,这次股灾美国拿走的是融资权、定价权、大客户订单和越来越多未来利润的索取权;中国拿走的是产业利润空间和技术追赶时间。日韩仍然拥有工厂、工程师和核心技术,但承担了最高的资本开支、汇率波动与地缘成本。韩股日汇的剧烈波动真相也就在此了。 #韩股KOSPI盘中飙升14%,创历史最大单日涨幅 #日韩同日抛售美元护汇 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人
Speaking of which, as someone who usually likes to follow geopolitics, finance, stock trading, and crypto trading, I really learned a lot and witnessed history in this wave of the Hynix ADR listing event. Those who are a bit older should still remember the 1997 Asian financial crisis, when Korean housewives sold their gold jewelry to support the country. This Hynix incident also feels like a case designed by the U.S. to take over Korea's quality assets. Everyone is well aware of the current situation of the U.S.; its overall national strength has declined far more compared to 1997, and its approach can only become more unsightly. While the Korean stock market is volatile, the yen exchange rate is also continuously dropping; breaking 165 is just a matter of time, and reaching 180 next year is basically inevitable. Back to Samsung and Hynix, these two typical Korean companies have gradually lost equity control through several crises. This crisis is another good opportunity to tighten the noose. Putting aside price fluctuations, the essence is that the U.S. needs to consume its allies' assets to cover its own deficits. So besides the possible market rescue forces mentioned earlier, there may be news of U.S. capital acquisitions or injections later on. If that really happens, this story will be completely closed. By then, the stock price should truly start to reverse. No one knows whether the current crisis limited to the storage sector will spread to the entire financial system and stock market. No one knows if this "Blue House Agreement" is similar to the "Plaza Accord" that caused Japan to lose thirty years. However, Korea's political structure determines that it will not fare well—not because of lack of effort, but because it is not allowed. $SKHYNIX $SKHY $MU #韩股波动剧烈引监管介入,财长为杠杆ETF道歉 #

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!