Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

$SNDK SanDisk earnings report is coming out at 1:30 soon Most likely it's going to be another rally The current rise might be due to anticipation of good earnings SanDisk is too strong, short positions are panicking, Get out quickly once you break even!

$BTC is forming a bottom in a "boring sideways" pattern, but there may still be a "final dip." According to the latest Glassnode report, Bitcoin is slowly forming a bottom. On July 31, the Coldcard incident resulted in the theft of about 594 BTC. In the following three days, the amount of Bitcoin that had not moved for over a year surged to about 119,000 BTC, but only about one-tenth flowed into exchanges, and the price did not show a significant panic reaction. This indicates that long-term holders have started adjusting their assets but have not created concentrated selling pressure. The current seller exhaustion indicator has entered a historical bottom area, but it is still about one-third away from the true final bottom of past bear markets, meaning chip cleansing is underway but may not be fully complete. However, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about 65,800 BTC in June, marking the worst monthly performance in history; corporate reserve buying also cannot fully fill the funding gap. Without new incremental funds, even if selling decreases, BTC will find it difficult to quickly start a trending rally. The options market is also unusually calm. The implied volatility of call options has dropped to a historical low of about 23%, while put volatility remains normal, indicating traders are neither betting on a surge nor paying high protection costs for a crash. Historically, similar volatility compressions mostly break upward eventually, but this round lacks the demand to drive a sustained rally. Moreover, in terms of related indicator trends, BTC is currently still oscillating around $64,000. If it breaks out with volume and holds above $65,000, it is expected to extend to $67,000 to $68,000; if it falls below the $62,000 to $63,000 cost-intensive zone, it may retest $60,000 again. BTC bottom conditions are accumulating, but true reversal signals are still insufficient: - ETF inflows - Volume expansion - Price breaking key levels #CLARITY法案推进受阻，参议院分歧扩大

$BTC has been rising for 6 consecutive days, no objections to shorting it, right? Logically, it shouldn't surge dramatically anymore; if it can reach 70,000, then keep shorting. But obviously, it can't get that high, so short, short, short—short every time it rises a bit, see if it can reach 65,000. The main point is, don't go all in, play it slow.

Let's talk about the cross-asset temperature difference. Tonight, spot gold once surged above $4200, hitting a new all-time high; at the same time, $BTC was still hovering around 64,000, with gains under 1%. Safe-haven funds are clearly flowing into real gold, while the so-called "digital gold" completely missed the baton this round. This indicates one thing: in the face of genuine safe-haven demand, the market currently treats BTC as a risk asset, not a refuge. Stop propping up the coin price with the "digital gold" narrative; the capital flow has already cast its vote. When do you think the money from this gold and silver rally will spill over into crypto? Let's talk positions.

Here's a calm observation. The hardest part of this round isn't the drop, it's the "lack of narrative." $BTC is stuck around 64K, and altcoins can't even rally a decent sector rotation—money has been drawn away by stronger stories like US stocks in AI, semiconductors, and gold, leaving crypto as a field with no new stories being told. The narrative vacuum period is the toughest test: without new capital inflow, any pump is just a zero-sum game where you're profiting from others' losses. Don't rush to find the "next 100x" during times like this; most are just bag holders. Protect your ammo and wait for a truly new narrative to ignite.

Isn't the $SPCX rocket about to be unlocked? Why hasn't it been shorted? It's been shorted all night and still lost a bit! Can't the unlocking even shake the rocket? Then won't it take off later? How many years will it take for the universe's number one stock to hit $1000?

#意大利大行减IBIT普通股94%，加仓质押ETH Italy's largest bank slashed its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 94% and tripled its Ethereum staking position — Italy's biggest bank, together with Banco San Paolo, cut its holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF by 94% in Q2. They reduced from over 640,000 shares down to just over 40,000 shares, while tripling their Ethereum staking ETF holdings from over 110,000 shares to nearly 350,000 shares. Looking into the specific holdings, the bank also did something quite interesting — it cleared out 99% of its IBIT call options while adding 500,000 shares worth of put options. Essentially, they reduced exposure while buying insurance. They haven't fully exited, still holding 3.46 million shares of ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, valued at over $67 million. So, it's not that they are bearish—they still have a position. But buying puts suggests caution. Overall, the moves look more like asset structure rebalancing rather than a purely bearish stance. Similarly, Harvard University exited $87 million worth of Ethereum staking ETF in Q1 and cut its Bitcoin ETF holdings by 43%. The same event, but two institutions moving in completely opposite directions. $BTC ……$ETH

Gold Breaks Through Today, gold successfully broke through the 50-day moving average at the $4200 mark, and after stabilizing, it further broke through $4300. According to the previously mentioned 50-day/200-day method, this is worth paying attention to. The next resistance level is the 200-day moving average at $4500. If it breaks through again, it will completely open up the upper range. But if it fails to break $4500, taking some profits and preparing for a swing trade is also a comfortable approach. Several key reasons for gold's strength: · Weak dollar: Middle East tensions quickly cooled down, with Iran and Oman reaching a consensus on shipping routes tonight; the yen strengthening suppresses the dollar · US debt ceiling surpasses 40 trillion: combined with government shutdown concerns in September, this lowers dollar credit · Poor performance from Washington: July meeting slogans suggested replacing Fed rate hikes with US debt, angering the market · Weak July non-farm payrolls: 44,000, below expectations; poor non-farm data increases the probability of rate cuts The next movement of gold—whether it will soar or gradually consolidate—depends on the dollar index, that is, the situation of the dollar, yen, and US debt combination. Currently, this puzzle is quite difficult to solve: Japan's fiscal issues, massive carry trades, and the US debt ceiling. Washington's June performance once gave me the illusion that a hawkish chair could support US debt, but the second time it failed, and the market took a hard fall. However, I will not underestimate Bessent's ability; after the window check, there might still be moves. In the mid-term view, the window for gold has already opened. As for how to allocate, what position size, what leverage, swing trade or long-term, there is no one-size-fits-all answer; everyone should operate according to their own capability. Just a reminder for newcomers unfamiliar with gold: do not heavily invest; 5-10% as a household allocation is sufficient. AI remains the main theme currently. Today, the A-share market is strong, optical modules are performing well, continuing to stabilize and recover. Slightly adding back the previously reduced positions, around 70% is appropriate. The above is only personal opinion, not investment advice; please be aware of risks.

Brothers. Sometimes I really feel. The hardest part about holding coins is not choosing the coin. It's holding on. $CORE #临时通航协议待落地，油价风险尚未反转 #从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到