#AIMemoryBullTest

AMD Earnings Review → SanDisk $SNDK Tonight's Prediction AMD beats expectations + strong guidance → falls 9% after hours Reason: Gross margin below expectations, good news already priced in Same logic for SanDisk tonight, bearish SanDisk earnings release tonight (early morning August 6 Beijing time) Expectations: Revenue $8.3B / EPS $34.24 Price has risen 32% from the low of 1123, expectations fully priced in Price going up means short. Above 1420, short short short, live in the palace #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $AMD $SNDK $SNDK

AMD Earnings Review → SanDisk $SNDK Tonight's Prediction AMD beats expectations + strong guidance → falls 9% after hours Reason: Gross margin below expectations, good news already priced in Same logic for SanDisk tonight, bearish SanDisk earnings release tonight (early morning August 6 Beijing time) Expectations: Revenue $8.3B / EPS $34.24 Price has risen 32% from the low of 1123, expectations fully priced in Price going up means short. Above 1420, short short short, live in the palace #AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ $AMD $SNDK

Goldman TMT on tech weakness SanDisk & Western Digital: Both memory names traded lower after hours despite strong reported quarters, as the issue was not the current print but elevated buy-side expectations going into results. SanDisk beat on revenue, gross margin and EPS, but 3Q revenue guidance was only slightly below the Street while EPS was broadly in line, triggering some profit-taking after a big prior move; the more supportive takeaway is that SanDisk has locked in multi-year customer supply agreements covering over 50% of FY27 and 65% of FY28 planned bit production at floor pricing, supporting NAND pricing visibility and buybacks. Western Digital also beat on revenue, margin and EPS and guided 3Q revenue/margins above consensus, but the stock fell because the guide did not reset the bar enough given high HDD pricing and margin expectations, with some concern around softer exabyte growth as the company manages its 40TB ePMR ramp and HAMR qualification; overall, the read-through is a “beat but not enough” night for NAND/HDD, with fundamentals still supportive but expectations very high.

$SNDK about $1289, -4.5% after-hours. Sandisk printed a much bigger quarter than a normal storage beat, and the stock still faded. Q4 revenue was $8.97B, up 51% q/q and 372% y/y. Non-GAAP EPS was $39.25. Non-GAAP gross margin reached 84.6%, and Datacenter revenue climbed to $2.98B from $1.47B last quarter. Q1 guide is $10.3B-$10.8B with $44-$46 non-GAAP EPS. Sandisk also said it signed five more NBM agreements since April, taking the total to ten, and added $14B to its buyback authorization. The after-hours read is that the setup had already moved to a guide-and-duration test. If datacenter mix, pricing, and those NBM commitments keep lifting FY27 EPS, this fade can reverse. If the market decides Q1 only meets a stretched bar, the storage de-rating can keep running. source: company release / SEC filing

Everyone’s talking AI. No one’s talking about where all the AI data lives. DNA sequencing, AI training, cloud workloads… it all needs 2 things: 1. Hardware to create data - $LAB 2. Storage to hold data - $SNDK This is why “infrastructure is the answer.” The crowd trades momentum. The smart money owns the backbone. $LAB builds it. $SNDK stores it. Agree or disagree? Drop your top infra pick below 👇 #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates #SP500Hits7700

*WESTERN DIGITAL Q4 REVENUE USD 3,747 MILLION VS. IBES ESTIMATE USD 3,692 MILLION *WESTERN DIGITAL Q4 ADJUSTED EPS USD 3.56 VS. IBES ESTIMATE USD 3.3 $WDC

A financial health check for the storage sector, focusing only on the numbers. SanDisk SNDK reported revenue of $8.96 billion this quarter, clearly exceeding the expected $8.39 billion; however, its guidance for the next quarter is set at $10.3–10.8 billion, just at the lower edge of the market expectation of $10.8 billion — causing its stock to drop over 3% in after-hours trading. On the same night, Western Digital WDC instead issued a strong guidance with a year-over-year increase of +42% to +49%. In the same sector, one is dragged down by guidance while the other is lifted by it, indicating that the divergence in this storage cycle has shifted from "market boom or bust" to "who holds stronger pricing power." Data doesn't play games with you; even in a super cycle, there are winners and losers. $BTC #ADPCoolsFedSplit #EarningsRealityCheck #SpaceXBeatEstimates

Two "explosive" earnings reports triggered a sharp stock price drop—the core contradiction lies in this: the valuation logic of the AI storage sector has shifted from "performance realization" to "continuous performance exceeding expectations." Current earnings reports only prove the past, and guidance falling short of expectations became the trigger for the pullback. 📊 Earnings Highlights: Historic Growth Both companies' revenue and profits far exceeded expectations: Western Digital (WDC): Q4 revenue $3.75 billion (YoY +44%), adjusted EPS $3.56 (YoY +109%). · SanDisk (SNDK): Q4 revenue $8.97 billion (YoY +372%), adjusted EPS 0.29. Data center revenue surged 1298% YoY**. 📉 Root Cause of the Plunge: "Expectation Gap" under High Expectations After soaring about 200% and 469% respectively during the year, the market's threshold for "surprise" is extremely high. · Guidance "Not Surprising Enough": SanDisk's next quarter revenue guidance midpoint is $10.55 billion, below the expected $10.8 billion; Western Digital's guidance also lags behind strong outlooks from competitor Seagate Technology. · Gross Margin "Peaking at High Levels": SanDisk's Q4 gross margin was 84.6%, but next quarter guidance is only 83%-85%; Western Digital's 55%-56% is also lower than Seagate's 57%+. 🌍 Chain Reaction: Collective Weakness from US Stocks to Asia-Pacific Pessimism quickly spread: SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plunged in Asia-Pacific pre-market trading, Kioxia dropped over 10%; US storage stocks like Micron and Seagate also came under pressure. ⚖️ Market Divergence: Golden Pit or Cycle Peak? · Bulls (Long-term Optimistic): Citi believes inventory is low and capacity insufficient; China Asset Management sees strong sustained AI demand; Mizuho raised target prices betting on supply-demand imbalance. #AIMemoryBullTest #FedHawksVsWeakJobs #SpaceXUnlockRebound

Here is why AI compute and consumer hardware are about to get significantly more expensive, despite what most people think. Common belief says hardware and AI token prices will decline as computing efficiency improves and memory supply increases. But that overlooks the structural reality of the supply chain. At a recent SpaceX earnings call, @elonmusk pointed out that memory supply grows by roughly 20% a year, while demand is growing by 200%. Many expected cheap memory supply from China's CXMT to ease the pressure, but Apple recently received a quote from CXMT that was actually higher than Samsung's. Having talked directly with semiconductor fab engineers, this is entirely expected. Demand is so far ahead of supply that CXMT has no incentive to price aggressively. This gap widened massively after the agent boom earlier this year. Agents consume significantly more tokens by default, causing global inference usage to skyrocket. Better performance brought in a wave of new users, as shown by Codex rapidly crossing 10M users. Meanwhile, compute efficiency gains have been very small. AI labs chose to increase model sizes to raise intelligence, consuming at least double the compute and accelerating demand further. On the supply side, hardware bottlenecks take years to fix. SK Hynix's Yongin cluster only starts its first fab in 2027, with full operations planned for 2033. Even with massive construction starting today, it takes about 5 years for actual supply to land on the market. This is an unsolvable short-term bottleneck. AI inference costs will inevitably keep rising, and consumer hardware will follow. This is why I keep telling everyone to buy the personal hardware now.