$SNDK SanDisk released its earnings report, slightly below expectations In fact, SanDisk has risen a lot and also fallen deeper; its fundamentals are not as strong as Micron's. In this AI-driven cycle, HBM is the biggest beneficiary, while SanDisk does not directly compete in the HBM market. The NAND Flash competitive landscape is more fragmented, with Yangtze Memory holding about a 13% share and a higher proportion in the consumer segment, making it more sensitive to weak end-user demand. SanDisk and SK Hynix jointly released the HBF standard as a long-term strategy, but it cannot contribute to revenue in the short term. The price of 1TB solid-state drives has risen from about $45 to nearly $90, and consumer "can't afford it" sentiment is spreading. If consumer demand experiences a cliff-like drop, even with strong data center demand, memory prices may peak earlier than expected.

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Gold $XAUT surged 4%, breaking through the consolidation range Gold has currently entered an upward consolidation range, with the Chinese government continuously buying spot, and the current US stock $XQQQ trading is still relatively crowded, in a high-frequency trading period of high sell and low buy Meanwhile, Bitcoin's volatility is relatively low during the same period I believe the market will have a sustained upward pull expectation for gold for some time, and this timing happens to occur under the overall environment of US stocks stabilizing. The randomness of Mr. Market is the mainstream of the financial market.

One day, the AI infrastructure of China and the US will be completely separated. Although China has potential in tech stocks, American technology makes money from people all over the world. Currently, because the US still needs China for manufacturing in AI, and high-end chips and lithography machines are still controlled by the US, Zhongji Xuchuang only profits from assembly. If the US achieves mass production or feels that China has mastered core technology, it will not hesitate to block China, and China's customers are mostly African brothers, which limits Chinese technology. Right now, AI is still dominated by the US; the seven giants can burn money, while we can only rely on distillation and cost compression to create something similar. This is a fact.

Some major events happened last night. Overall, it's positive for the US stock market and the US semiconductor tech sector. Everyone knows I am firmly bullish on $SMH and $DRAM; this is the best investment opportunity for the future.

Still long-term optimistic on $DRAM $SMH According to TrendForce's latest memory industry research, the DRAM supply shortage pattern will continue until 2027, and there are variables in the validation progress of the original manufacturer’s HBM4e. Starting from Q3 2026, NVIDIA has changed the HBM configuration for Rubin Ultra from HBM4e 12hi to parallel evaluations of HBM4e 8hi, HBM4 12hi, HBM4 8hi designs, with no final decision yet. Besides NVIDIA, some cloud service providers are also considering reducing the HBM capacity design of their next-generation self-developed ASICs. In other words, current production capacity still cannot keep up, so reliance on HBM must be reduced through technology, which also proves the long-term profitability of AI and the continued long-term demand for DRAM.

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#亚马逊市值破3万亿，500亿押注先赢一局 Let's start with what everyone is interested in: currently, Amazon is not expensive given its performance fulfillment support and future outlook, even trading 44% below its past levels. Institutions have given it a buy rating, and market funds may be positioning towards cloud enterprises. The U.S. tech giant Amazon $XAMZN has reached a historic moment: Its stock price surge pushed the company's market value to surpass the $3 trillion mark for the first time, making it the fifth company in global history to join the “$3 Trillion Club,” following Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Apple. With AWS cloud computing business achieving its fastest growth since 2021 in Q2, and hundreds of billions deeply invested and floating profits in the AI field, Amazon has successfully delivered results in the AI mid-game battle, winning a crucial round. First point, breakthrough: joining the $3 trillion super-giant club Reviewing Amazon's market value evolution: From $1 trillion to $2 trillion: first crossed $1 trillion at the end of 2018, then surpassed $2 trillion by June 2024, taking about 6 years. From $2 trillion to $3 trillion: from June 2024's $2 trillion to now $3 trillion, it took just over 2 years. In recent months, due to market concerns over tech giants’ "excessive generative AI capital expenditure and delayed monetization pace," Amazon's stock price once fell nearly 18% from its peak. However, with the strong Q2 earnings report, market panic was completely reversed by solid performance delivery. Second point, catalyst: AWS returns to high-speed growth, Q2 report triggers single-day surge What caused the market's 180-degree turnaround was Amazon's latest Q2 earnings report: Core financial indicators far exceeded expectations Net sales: reached $200.6 billion, up 20% year-over-year Operating profit: reached $27.5 billion, up 43% year-over-year AWS profit powerhouse explodes As Amazon's most important profit pillar, cloud computing revenue posted the largest year-over-year increase since 2021. Enterprise clients shifted from earlier IT budget cuts to accelerating workload migration to the cloud and building AI large model applications, driving explosive demand for cloud computing power and storage. Largest single-day gain in 14 years After the earnings release, Amazon's stock surged over 15% in a single day, marking the largest single-day gain in 14 years, with market value soaring nearly $400 billion in one day. Third point, the $50 billion foresight: AI big bet pays off, leading in computing power and models, showcasing Amazon's strategic vision and resource integration in the generative AI battle: Investment gains and earnings highlights Earnings data show Amazon's net profit soared to $62.6 billion this quarter, including $53.4 billion in non-operating pre-tax gains from strategic investments in AI frontier giants. Previously, Amazon announced massive additional and cumulative investments tied to computing power, which have translated into very impressive investment returns in the financial statements. Positive flywheel of computing power and cloud ecosystem Unlike companies profiting solely from single AI applications, Amazon has achieved a full-chain closed loop of infrastructure + self-developed chips + model platform: Self-developed chips reduce costs and improve efficiency: Amazon's Trainium and Inferentia AI chips provide highly cost-effective alternatives for enterprise training and inference. Platform empowerment: Amazon integrates top large models into the Bedrock platform, enabling enterprise developers to invoke large models while directly driving AWS's computing, storage, and data transfer usage, realizing a self-reinforcing flywheel of “AI investment → computing power consumption → cloud business growth.” Fourth point, valuation and outlook: forward P/E still low Although market value has crossed $3 trillion, from valuation metrics, Amazon's cost-effectiveness remains outstanding: Valuation at historical low: based on expected earnings over the next 12 months, Amazon's forward P/E is only about 25 times, approximately 44% discount to the past decade's average level, still offering a very high margin of safety. Leading the seven giants: amid a flat overall rise in the seven major U.S. tech stocks this year, Amazon stands out as the brightest leader stock due to earnings certainty. Wall Street target price raised: Bloomberg data shows Wall Street analysts remain highly optimistic about Amazon, with an average target price indicating about 14% upside from the current stock price. From e-commerce giant to cloud computing overlord, and now to enabler in the generative AI era, Amazon's $3 trillion market value proves its strategic vision. It is not only the realization of investment returns but also a victory of the cloud computing and AI commercialization closed loop. As enterprise-level AI applications enter deep implementation, Amazon has secured an excellent leading position.

I came across a post with a pretty interesting perspective: It says investing and finding a partner are the same principle. "Why is it that most women find it hard to meet high-quality men? Any woman who trades stocks or crypto would understand that to achieve high returns, you have to have the insight to recognize value when prices are low and no one else is optimistic, buying early and holding firmly. When his monthly salary is 5,000, would you dare to go all in and accompany him through thick and thin? If you wait until the stock price has multiplied several times to buy in hoping for high returns, you will most likely get stuck holding the bag. And the chance of encountering a scammer is very high." Thinking about it carefully, it really is like that.

Storage $DRAM is still dominated by the seller's market. Samsung offers customers a "limit on price drops, no limit on price increases" clause. Simply put, Samsung is willing to bear the short-term losses from price drops to lock in the production capacity of major customers. Think about it, if they weren't absolutely confident about price increases in the strong Q4 season, who would dare to sign such an agreement? This proves that the demand for storage is still very strong. But the market is currently feeling divided. On one side, graphics cards in Huaqiangbei are rising in spot price every day, upstream memory costs are soaring, channels can't even get stock, and the physical market is extremely hot; On the other side, the stock market continues to fall. Everyone is in extreme panic, thinking the industry trend is about to change or reverse. In fact, the sharp drop in the market often has nothing to do with fundamentals; it's about capital sentiment and chip competition. Spot prices and manufacturers' long-term contract terms are not deceptive; the tight supply in the physical market reflects real supply and demand. It feels like as long as Samsung's clause that guarantees a floor price but no ceiling remains, this kind of decline is purely an emotional overreaction. The day Samsung starts canceling this clause and gives up pricing power is the time to run. As for now? It's just a way for capital to deleverage and clear out retail investors after making too much profit.