37度-流动性猎人
BTC holder since 2013 Building @SpiderPool_com 创业老兵|币圈踩雷达人|远洋捕捞体验者|2016交易所|2017挖矿|2022暴雷破产|2026AI机房/OKX最高排行第9交易员 首创流动性交易，擅长Liquidity Hunting
377Following
738followers
Feed
Feed
Trump is selling coins again, will he copy homework this time?
In the late bear market, many institutions and individuals can't withstand the cash flow pressure, can't hold on, have no choice but to dump again. You dump, I dump, a chain of liquidations. If a black swan event is added, it becomes even more perfect. Don't say "this time is different." The power of the cycle pressing down is like a mountain; when pushing forward, it's like a rocket. Counter-cyclical players perish, pro-cyclical players prosper. Wait for a time when no one cares and everyone curses, when everyone still thinks there's a bull market and fears missing out—that means it hasn't bottomed yet
👍👍👍
以太负债榜一
Currently, 10u has about 9u left, all trades are opened only at key positions for long-short battles, and when going long, it reached 11. Other funds in the account follow the trades of @37度-流动性猎人, whose trading style I find very interesting. I only use my own capital for opening trades.
Yes, many people look down on such a small capital, but what if it is scaled up, say to 10,000u? The volatility doesn't change, but the mindset will change $BTC $ETH $SNDK
Working on mindset and management
#创作者激励 #美联储即将公布利率决议 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷
There is a big divergence. I agree with the valuation logic of long-term investment, but this must be based on a long-term/long-cycle foundation.
However, the cycle of storage cyclical stocks is a risk that cannot be ignored. Super cycles are also cycles, large capital expenditures are cyclical, AI infrastructure is also phased, investment-driven industries are cyclical, and new industries and new species follow the cycle of germination-bubble-bubble burst-rebirth... These commonalities are all very short cycles. If you use long-term money to invest in short-cycle targets, this is a mismatch.
If semiconductors have matured to the level of infrastructure like hydropower, coal, Tencent, and WeChat, I believe it is logical for stock prices to fluctuate around valuations in the long term, and the semiconductor industry will also produce such companies, but will it be storage? This kind of cyclical stock + inverse parabolic/90-degree rise, where the stock price first runs to the valuation price of several years later, then talks about long-term investment valuation logic, I can't say you are completely wrong now, but the risk is very high.
Moreover, the expansion speed of HBM capacity will exceed the speed promoted by all media noise articles, and this is a real risk.
PS: This post is for fans of storage kings, mainly discussing storage, and does not mean I am not optimistic about other semiconductor stocks, nor does it mean I am not optimistic about AI. I am very optimistic about AI, but AI will also go through the necessary step of bubble burst, which is the industry's clearing of toxins and the dawn of rebirth.
$MU $SNDK
$BTC has chosen a direction
This makes it easier to trade, unlike before when it was oscillating between 645-651, moving both up and down
New range:
635
633
630 market price
620
615
604
With macro tightening and liquidity tightening, the main force first hunts the liquidity above over the weekend, then moves down to consume it. This is the most optimal profit path and also the path of least resistance. If the big player continues to open long positions at 640, then stop losses will be triggered again.
633 is a good position. If it goes wrong, I’m willing to hold the position here, with a risk-reward ratio of at least 2. I will place orders in batches at 633, 635, and 637, taking as much as possible. The lower range can be used as a reference point for taking profits.
If the yen continues to appreciate or other major risks emerge, there is a high probability it will break through the lower range all the way, even breaking 60k. Otherwise, it will most likely turn back to consume the liquidity I mentioned earlier at 65-67k (not very certain yet), forcing a short squeeze.
The late bear market is about killing technical trading styles; indicators will fail, and it will slowly oscillate and decline until no one cares.
Take it step by step, verify together, please hit the triple like button! $BTC
US stock funds are flowing back into big tech, which is a signal. It's very clear that funds have withdrawn from semiconductors.
Next week is the watershed moment for this semiconductor rebound. If it's a bull market, it will hit new highs within a week or at least break through all moving averages and approach historical highs. A bull market won't linger at low prices for long; it will quickly leave the bottom of the pullback. New highs are difficult; $MU needs to rally 54% to return to its high, and $SNDK needs to nearly double. I believe the main players lack the motivation to help everyone break even, especially for $SNDK.
If it's a bear market, after the rebound, it will continue to drop, breaking below the 200-day moving average again. The downside target for SNDK is 500-550, and for MU it's 400. MU will eventually catch down; the current risk-reward ratio is very poor.
To the loyal followers, please be cautious of risks. This trend resembles the silver market trend. You can look at the silver trend as a reference. If you are trapped, try to trade in waves to lower your cost basis. As you do this, you might become less attached to your position size, which will help you escape in time if the bear market comes. This strategy takes 20 years; first, think clearly about the worst-case scenario.
The most beautiful stories trap the most people. That's my reminder for now.
37度-流动性猎人
This kind of short squeeze market is really exciting. Whoever can short at a good position and hold on will make a fortune. It will directly break below the 200-day moving average and test the bottom again, accelerating the decline. Then we can 100% declare entering a bear market. The trend shorts will be comfortable, but catching the top shorts is very painful. It's safer to chase shorts on the right side.
If this wave turns into a reversal with volume breaking through all key K-lines, then it’s a bull comeback. But the leverage taken off is real money and won’t come back. The probability of this bull market is very low. If the bull market really continues, there’s no need to pump it up. The real price is already at the 7000-meter altitude of Everest. You should exit before several big model companies go public. This was also my original idea of holding the underlying stocks.
Only enter long positions after the short squeeze, which is a position that gets hit. The upside odds are low, and the downside space is very large. If you are catching a rebound, it’s about time to take profits. Don’t be ambitious. This is my profit-taking idea for building long positions at the 200-day moving average this wave, but I have already shaken out.
$MU hasn’t passed the 50-day moving average.
$SNDK is stuck at the 120-day moving average.
$NVDA hasn’t even touched the 120-day moving average, which is a wind vane.
Many semiconductor stocks haven’t broken the 120-day moving average, and few can break the 50-day moving average.
This short squeeze is the result of precise calculation. At the latest, next week, we will soon see Korea’s market rescue and the Hynix boss buying back stocks again and getting scolded. It’s a capital unloading market. Once it crashes, it’s a panic stampede and scramble to exit game.
It only takes 2-3 trading days to see the result, which can verify the above views. Let’s verify together.
Everything will be destroyed! South Korea's leverage has returned to historical highs, and retail investors will sooner or later be exploited again!
Some of South Korea's funds have been wiped out, Chinese funds are only allowed to sell, not buy, Middle Eastern funds have bought what they should, and Japanese funds are massively withdrawing due to the rising exchange rate... Moreover, Chinese technology is aggressively catching up with the US across various industries, which will lead to a revaluation of many sectors, Tesla being a recent example.
Considering the Nasdaq's technicals, the weekly-level correction may have just begun; the index has probably been sustained by AI-driven investments over the past six months.
Bitcoin still lacks a black swan crash; could this black swan be a broad collapse of the US stock market? Or a new liquidity crisis triggered by Japanese interest rate hikes and exchange rate changes?
What black swans do you think might appear in the next six months? $BTC
This kind of short squeeze market is really exciting. Whoever can short at a good position and hold on will make a fortune. It will directly break below the 200-day moving average and test the bottom again, accelerating the decline. Then we can 100% declare entering a bear market. The trend shorts will be comfortable, but catching the top shorts is very painful. It's safer to chase shorts on the right side.
If this wave turns into a reversal with volume breaking through all key K-lines, then it’s a bull comeback. But the leverage taken off is real money and won’t come back. The probability of this bull market is very low. If the bull market really continues, there’s no need to pump it up. The real price is already at the 7000-meter altitude of Everest. You should exit before several big model companies go public. This was also my original idea of holding the underlying stocks.
Only enter long positions after the short squeeze, which is a position that gets hit. The upside odds are low, and the downside space is very large. If you are catching a rebound, it’s about time to take profits. Don’t be ambitious. This is my profit-taking idea for building long positions at the 200-day moving average this wave, but I have already shaken out.
$MU hasn’t passed the 50-day moving average.
$SNDK is stuck at the 120-day moving average.
$NVDA hasn’t even touched the 120-day moving average, which is a wind vane.
Many semiconductor stocks haven’t broken the 120-day moving average, and few can break the 50-day moving average.
This short squeeze is the result of precise calculation. At the latest, next week, we will soon see Korea’s market rescue and the Hynix boss buying back stocks again and getting scolded. It’s a capital unloading market. Once it crashes, it’s a panic stampede and scramble to exit game.
It only takes 2-3 trading days to see the result, which can verify the above views. Let’s verify together.
