#SpaceXUnlockRebound

هذا الصباح، أصدرت سبيس إكس أول تقرير مالي لها منذ طرحها للاكتتاب العام. كانت المؤشرات المالية الأساسية أفضل بكثير من توقعات السوق، وكانت خسائر أعمالها في مجال الذكاء الاصطناعي أقوى من المتوقع، لكن الإنفاق الرأسمالي المتعلق بالذكاء الاصطناعي تجاوز التوقعات. بعد إعلان الأرباح، انخفض سعر سهم سبيس إكس بعد ساعات العمل. في 6 أغسطس، ستشهد سبيس إكس أيضا ما يصل إلى 911.5 مليون سهم مفتوحة، أي ما يمثل 20٪ من إجمالي الأسهم المفتوحة. مع "الأرباح المختلطة" و"فتح التريليون يوان في دورة فتح التريليون"، ما رأيك في سعر سهم سبيس إكس في المستقبل؟ #财报观察员: نتائج متباينة، الفتح يقترب! ما رأيك في مستقبل سبيس إكس؟

SpaceX passed its first unlock test, but not yet its valuation test. Shares rose 6.1% to $114.92 on Aug 6 even as up to 911.5M shares became eligible for sale, more than the roughly 638.9M shares sold in its IPO. The rebound followed a nearly 14% drop the previous day, while the stock remains below its $135 offering price. Its first post-IPO earnings report delivered a clear top-line beat: · Revenue reached $7.8B, up more than 90% YoY · Net loss narrowed to $541M, or $0.09 per share, less than half analysts expected · AI revenue reached $2.56B, up 247% YoY SpaceX now reports AI as a core segment following its February acquisition of xAI, bringing xAI, Grok and X into the broader business. But Starlink remains the current revenue engine. The connectivity segment generated $4.29B, up 66% YoY and accounting for more than half of total revenue, while Starlink subscribers doubled to around 12M. The spending side changed the conversation. Total quarterly capex climbed to about $18.3B, with roughly $15.8B directed toward AI infrastructure, more than double the previous quarter and significantly above current quarterly AI revenue. That comparison does not capture the multi-year value of infrastructure, but it shows the scale of the upfront buildout. Investors are increasingly separating rapid AI demand from the cost of delivering it. The unlock also requires context. Shares becoming eligible for sale does not mean all of them were sold on Aug 6. The rebound shows the market absorbed the first day of potential supply, not that selling pressure has disappeared. Aug 6 was only the first staged release. Additional tranches remain under the IPO lockup schedule, while Elon Musk’s shares are subject to a 366-day lockup. The next test is whether Starlink’s revenue base and rapid AI growth can support higher capex before more shares become available. Which signal matters more now: AI revenue converting into stronger margins, or continued absorption of the unlocked supply? #SpaceXUnlockRebound #AIMemoryBullTest

SpaceX stock climbed today even as the first big lockup expired and more than doubled the shares available to trade. Employees and early investors can finally sell near 911M shares. Markets usually panic at that kind of supply dump… but the stock rose anyway, with massive volume. After the post-IPO rollercoaster (and yesterday’s drop on the AI spending numbers), that’s a pretty clear signal: a lot of people still want in. Elon structured this IPO so tightly that only a tiny slice was public at 1st. Now the float is expanding in stages, yet the core thesis hasn’t changed. Same guy who made rockets reusable and Starlink global is now pouring that efficiency mindset into AI infrastructure. Short-term volatility is noise. The long-term opportunity is still enormous. Source: Reuters, @SpaceX / Writer: Lucas

What use is good performance for $SNDK? The lifeline for storage stocks is not the financial report at all. SanDisk's Q2 results exceeded expectations, but the guidance for the next quarter did not meet the market's "explosive" expectations, dropping 5% after hours and falling more than 10% pre-market; Western Digital also posted impressive profits but gave guidance that "doesn't satisfy," leading to a sharp sell-off. Previously, Samsung and SK Hynix also plummeted after their earnings reports. The market logic is clear: stock prices speculate on future growth, not the past that has already been realized. The AI market has pushed expectations to the limit; merely "exceeding expectations" is far from enough. Guidance must be spectacular enough to support high valuations. Any shortfall, and capital immediately votes with its feet. Once earnings are realized, they become old news; the gap in expectations is the real lifeline.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck

📊 SanDisk Beats Estimates, Expands Buyback—But Shares Slip After Hours SanDisk delivered a strong quarter, beating Wall Street expectations and announcing an additional $14 billion share buyback. Yet despite the positive headline numbers, the stock declined in after-hours trading. Key highlights: 💰 Q4 revenue: $8.97 billion 📈 Adjusted EPS: $39.25, ahead of expectations 🔄 New $14B share repurchase program signals management's confidence in long-term value. So why did the stock fall? The main concern was softer-than-expected Q1 guidance, reminding investors that markets often focus more on future growth than past performance. A strong earnings beat can quickly be overshadowed if the outlook disappoints. The broader story remains intact: 🤖 AI-driven storage demand continues to strengthen. 💾 Investors are now watching whether NAND flash pricing improves and whether demand for high-bandwidth memory and enterprise storage can support current valuations. 📉 Near-term guidance has become the biggest factor driving sentiment. The market's message is clear: strong results alone aren't enough—companies also need to deliver confidence about what's ahead. What carries more weight for investors right now: the massive buyback or the cautious forward guidance? 👀 #SanDisk #AI #Semiconductors #NAND #Storage #Earnings #StockMarket #TechStocks #EarningsRealityCheck #Polymarket20BValuation #KoreaMemoryRebound

Talking about some solid stuff, those who know, know. $SPCX is up 6% today against the trend, and behind it is a bigger narrative: SpaceX is building its own gas power plant and a massive battery array for the semiconductor giant Terafab in Texas, generating and storing its own electricity. This is no longer just about making rockets; Musk is moving the entire "energy—chip—AI" chain into his own backyard. With vertical integration to this extent, the valuation anchor changes. Don't just focus on the daily ups and downs; watch how this chain develops.#SandiskBeatAndBuyback #CircleArcLaunch #EarningsRealityCheck

#闪迪财报双超预期，新增140亿美元回购授权 SanDisk's earnings exceeded expectations, but the stock price dropped 15%, which is confusing to me. Last night, while lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone, I saw SanDisk released its earnings report. Revenue was 8.97 billion, surpassing the market expectation of 8.48 billion. EPS was $39.25, also beating estimates. They also approved a $14 billion buyback, and with the remaining from before, the total buyback can reach $15.5 billion. The numbers look pretty good, yet the stock fell more than 15% after hours. I stared at it for a while but still didn’t fully understand. After checking around, the market is talking about the Q1 guidance midpoint of 10.3 billion, which is lower than Wall Street’s expectations. Also, the stock had risen too much, expectations were set too high, and when the results came out and didn’t seem strong enough, it got sold off. Last year it rose more than sevenfold, climbing all the way to 2300, so any slight disturbance causes people to run. Additionally, the Changxin incident is also weighing on the whole sector sentiment. The performance itself is fine; AI storage demand is still supporting it. But the valuation is too high, expectations too elevated, so any slight disappointment leads to a sell-off. Retail investors cut losses, institutions unload shares. Good performance, stock price drops,,,, #DailyOrbit

$SNDK SanDisk's performance is flawless: but it continues to plunge! How should we view and handle this now? Just finished reviewing SanDisk's Q4 earnings, the numbers are unbelievably good: revenue hit 8.97 billion, far exceeding the expected 8.39 billion; earnings per share at $39.25 also beat the expected $34.4. Gross margin soared directly to 84.6%, up more than 6 points from an already impressive 78.4%. Data center revenue reached 2.97 billion, surpassing expectations with 437% growth, and the QLC Stargate product is indeed starting to contribute revenue. Logically, with such explosive data, the stock should have surged violently after hours. What happened? It plunged after hours! Not because of poor performance, but because the market wants the 2027 script, not the 2026 accolades. The Q1 revenue guidance is 10.3-10.8 billion, midpoint 10.55 billion, while the market expected 10.8 billion. That 250 million shortfall is just a breath away. In short, the market logic now is: good performance is expected, good guidance is the real positive. Guidance not hitting the ceiling means failure. So what now? Long strategy: Wait for sentiment to settle. If pre-market can stabilize around 1340-1350, which is the support level of this rebound, consider light buying. Set stop loss below 1300, take profit at 1450-1480. The long-term logic of this stock is intact; AI storage shortages will last at least until mid-2027, and institutional average target price remains above 2400. Short strategy: If the opening rebound can't break through 1430-1450, the high point of this rebound, consider shorting. Set stop loss at 1480, take profit at 1340. If it breaks 1300, increase position targeting 1244. The performance is undeniably strong, but the best buying points are always after panic selling ends, not chasing in the numbness of "meeting expectations." #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量 $BTC $ETH

SpaceX Beat Expectations... So Why Are AI Stocks Falling? Despite sky-high expectations, SpaceX delivered a stronger-than-expected Q2, reporting approximately $7.8 billion in revenue (+92% YoY) and around $3.5 billion in EBITDA, fueled by continued strength in Starlink, launch services, and AI-related businesses. Yet the market focused on a different story: an estimated $18.4 billion in capital expenditures, raising fresh concerns about cash flow and the long-term returns on massive AI investments. The reaction quickly spread beyond SpaceX. The broader AI semiconductor and memory sector also came under pressure after $SKHYNIX posted record profits but still failed to fully satisfy Wall Street's lofty expectations. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the AI investment cycle is entering a phase of slower earnings growth rather than explosive expansion. That helps explain why $SNDK and $SKHYNIX have recently shown signs of weakening. The issue isn't fading AI demand—it's that expectations have become extraordinarily high. When companies fail to outperform by a wide enough margin, profit-taking can emerge rapidly. At the same time, soaring AI spending across the tech industry is fueling concerns over future profitability, weighing on memory stocks. From a long-term perspective, the AI growth story remains firmly intact. In the short term, however, the market is shifting from pricing in expectations to pricing in execution. Until companies prove that earnings can justify their massive AI investments, memory leaders such as $SNDK and $SKHYNIX may continue to experience elevated volatility. #SpaceXBeatEstimates #SP500Hits7700 #SandiskEarningsWatch $SNDK $SKHYNIX

#EarningsRealityCheck Earnings Season Is Sending One Clear Message: Beating Estimates Isn't Enough. This week's earnings season revealed something increasingly important about today's market. SpaceX delivered stronger-than-expected revenue while narrowing its losses. AMD and Sandisk both beat revenue and earnings estimates. Palantir rallied after raising its outlook. Circle introduced a major long-term growth initiative through Arc. Yet investor reactions couldn't have been more different. Some stocks surged. Others fell despite reporting objectively strong numbers. That's because markets are no longer pricing companies based solely on recent performance. They're pricing the future. Guidance, capital allocation, AI investment plans and long-term competitive positioning now matter just as much as quarterly earnings. In other words, companies aren't being rewarded for beating expectations. They're being judged on whether they can continue exceeding increasingly ambitious expectations. As AI continues reshaping markets, investors appear willing to forgive weaker current profits if future growth remains intact. The bar keeps moving higher. And that's becoming the real earnings story. Do you think markets are becoming too focused on future guidance rather than actual results? Share your thoughts below 👇

$SPCX - SPACEX FACES MASSIVE SHARE UNLOCK Up to 911.5M SpaceX shares unlock today—more than 140% of the current public float—raising the risk of near-term volatility. The stock fell 12% after earnings despite beating on revenue and posting an unexpected AI profit. More unlocks follow on Aug. 12 and 20 days later, with 4B+ shares becoming tradable by year-end, creating a potential overhang even as long-term fundamentals remain in focus.