Innlegg

📊 The latest NFP report was much weaker than expected—and the market reaction is anything but simple. The headline number was -23K jobs, versus expectations of around +80K. On top of that, May and June payrolls were revised lower by a combined 103K. That’s a pretty sharp slowdown in the labor market. But there’s a strange contradiction: 📉 Employment is weakening 📉 Wage growth slowed to just 0.1% MoM 📈 Yet unemployment fell from 4.2% to 4.1% So the labor picture is sending mixed signals. The report also pushed September rate-hike expectations lower, with the probability falling from above 50% to roughly 44%. Markets are increasingly questioning whether the Fed can continue tightening. The reaction across assets has been interesting. 🟡 $XAU: Gold broke above $4,370, with futures settling near $4,399.7. The logic is straightforward: Weak jobs → less pressure for rate hikes → softer dollar → stronger gold. 🚀 $SPCX has also been extremely strong. After gaining around 6% on its unlock day, it jumped another 15.83% following the NFP release, closing near $133.11. From roughly $105 to $133 in just two days, that’s around a 23% move. It looks like unlock-related selling pressure has been absorbed, shorts are getting squeezed, and shifting rate expectations are adding fuel. Meanwhile, $SNDK went in the opposite direction. The stock dropped from around $1,326 to $1,200, finishing about 3.68% lower. That’s notable because weaker employment and lower rate expectations would normally be supportive for high-growth stocks. Yet AI-memory stocks remained under pressure. After already falling around 7% despite strong earnings, SanDisk’s inability to recover suggests the valuation reset in the AI-storage sector may not be finished. Seagate fell more than 10%, while Western Digital dropped over 5%. So the takeaway is clear: The NFP report was weak, but markets are responding very differently across assets. The next big focus: CPI. 👀 #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn #SpaceXShortCovering