灯塔说
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The short positions on Bitcoin and gold were entered a bit early (BTC at 63450, XAU at 4060)
A little too eager
Still afraid of missing out because the bears could come at any time
This round, I’m going to play both long and short!
Waiting for the wind to come!
$BTC $XAU $SPCX
#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates at 3.50%—3.75% in the July meeting, but three members called for a 25BP rate hike; the official statement still emphasized that inflation remains above target.
As of August 3, the expectation for a rate hike on September 17 was 73.6%
Today's latest expectation is 64.7%
This indicates that the market's expectation for a rate hike in September is increasing (under this high expectation, the recent market trend is hard to be bullish)
August's data is crucial, with the non-farm payroll data on the 7th expected to be over 80,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.3%
The actual published data is very important
Pressure is on Waller! If all data strongly favors a rate hike, can Waller withstand the pressure and maintain the status quo?
I am not targeting anyone here,
but rather want to use this kind of complaint to warn in advance
that this kind of trading does not make money,
only a "sense of experience."
This sense of experience will consume your costs
and wear down your principal.
This kind of short-term thrill is the best combo product for "teachers" who just entered the market and "newbie beginners" who just started.
Do you like this approach?
灯塔说
The ones who can survive at this stage are all experienced traders.
I don't understand why people still like to believe those who say you can make 100-200 points on Bitcoin.
Getting excited and shouting about making 10-20 points on Ethereum, isn't that just pure foolishness?
It's no wonder if you can't make money.
$BTC
#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX are about to report, Circle is the finale
$SPCX How will this secondary market big test go?
Wall Street consensus expects Q2 revenue between $6.72 billion and $6.90 billion. GAAP net loss is expected to be around $2 billion.
Starlink's connection service revenue is currently the absolute main driver; the market urgently needs to see the commercialization path of AI-related applications and strong growth in subscription users.
Believe in Musk once
And also believe in the first earnings report after the IPO
Last night successfully caught the entry point after the pullback
Now can stop loss at cost and wait for the earnings report
Sell before the chip release on August 6!
The ones who can survive at this stage are all experienced traders.
I don't understand why people still like to believe those who say you can make 100-200 points on Bitcoin.
Getting excited and shouting about making 10-20 points on Ethereum, isn't that just pure foolishness?
It's no wonder if you can't make money.
$BTC
#特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC, nature undisclosed
Talking about BTC and gold trading:
Went short on BTC over the weekend, planned around 63750, but entered early near 63310 over the weekend
The 63750 order placed this morning was also filled
Today reached the set target of 63580
Continued to place shorts between 62900-63000
The 62200 level couldn't hold, planning to look again around 61-60K
Not yet decided how low it will go below, but currently weak and macro is bearish
Just follow the trend to short. Keeping the possibility of 59K.
Below 60K is also a good position to buy the dip
Also shorted gold today
Target at 4015, plan to test 4000 again, might even break below 4000
But breaking below is fine, it's a good thing, a buying opportunity
Need to cherish the chance if it breaks below 4000, the extreme would be a new low around 3900
Optimistic about BTC and gold market later, the August decline is an opportunity.
$BTC $XAU
Review of crude oil trading:
Yesterday, the short position in crude oil reached the specified target near 79
Once again, precise guidance
Remember last time the guidance was 77-79 to 85-87
Hit every wave segment!
But honestly, I only took part of the profit.
Now just waiting for the peace talks to develop further, if it breaks below the 78 area, the next step is around 69
During the talks, just short on the rebounds.
灯塔说
#特朗普称对伊失去信心，酝酿再打击
Received news immediately that Trump canceled the attack on Iran
But the order was placed in limit price mode, missing the entry opportunity above 84+
In the end, rationality prevailed, and both sides chose to retreat
In the current situation, there are only two choices: full escalation or stepping back to negotiate
The previous small skirmishes no longer have any effect
The market is not buying it either.
Now continue to observe the progress of subsequent negotiations!
If oil prices fall, the August market will be slightly less pessimistic.
$CL
#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警
Iran is very concerned about saving face
Trump is much better in this regard
He has no idea what "face" means
Although everyone is very tough, everyone wants to end the fight quickly!
灯塔说
#特朗普称对伊失去信心，酝酿再打击
Received news immediately that Trump canceled the attack on Iran
But the order was placed in limit price mode, missing the entry opportunity above 84+
In the end, rationality prevailed, and both sides chose to retreat
In the current situation, there are only two choices: full escalation or stepping back to negotiate
The previous small skirmishes no longer have any effect
The market is not buying it either.
Now continue to observe the progress of subsequent negotiations!
If oil prices fall, the August market will be slightly less pessimistic.
$CL
#特朗普称对伊失去信心，酝酿再打击
Received news immediately that Trump canceled the attack on Iran
But the order was placed in limit price mode, missing the entry opportunity above 84+
In the end, rationality prevailed, and both sides chose to retreat
In the current situation, there are only two choices: full escalation or stepping back to negotiate
The previous small skirmishes no longer have any effect
The market is not buying it either.
Now continue to observe the progress of subsequent negotiations!
If oil prices fall, the August market will be slightly less pessimistic.
$CL
