#财报观察员: AMD and SpaceX Reports Coming Soon, Circle Closes the Show Tonight's Earnings Drama: What to Expect from AMD, SpaceX, and Circle? $AMD $SPCX $CRCL Palantir proved with results a few days ago that the market now only rewards guidance that exceeds expectations. Tonight AMD and SpaceX release earnings, and Circle closes the show before the market opens tomorrow. Here are my views and predictions. 🪁 AMD: Computing Power Demand Is the Only Question Expected revenue of 11.3 billion, gross margin around 56%. Last quarter was supported by data centers; tonight the key is whether next quarter's guidance for the MI series AI chips can raise the bar. Downstream major players urgently need a second supplier, and AMD just happens to occupy the golden ecosystem niche. ▶️ Prediction: Guidance will most likely slightly exceed expectations, but the stock price has already priced in some of this, so it may spike and then fluctuate. Medium to long term, share expansion remains optimistic. 🪁 SpaceX: Good Performance but Hard to Withstand Unlocking Sell Pressure The first quarterly report coincides with a trillion worth of unlocking. Starlink's cash flow and launch monopoly are undeniable, but the early low-cost chips unlocking creates a very real short-term liquidity shock. ▶️ Prediction: Even if performance is impressive, it’s hard to resist the pressure from unlocking chips. Short term will likely see volatile adjustments; waiting for the sell pressure to ease is a better time to position. 🪁 Circle: Dual Challenges of Reserve Shrinkage and Interest Rate Cuts USDC reserves have shrunk to around 72 billion, coupled with rising expectations of interest rate cuts, the logic of relying on US Treasury interest is discounted. The key is whether non-interest income such as payment and cross-chain fees can make up for it. ▶️ Prediction: If the proportion of non-interest income rises significantly, valuation can be restructured; if it still heavily depends on interest, the stock price will continue to be under short-term pressure. 💡 Among these three major tests, in terms of win rate and certainty, AMD’s guidance on the AI chain is relatively more promising. Not investment advice DYOR

The US stock market valuation rankings have shifted again. Google surged 3.5% this time, reaching a market value of $4.51 trillion, successfully surpassing Apple to rise to second place globally. Apple dipped slightly by 0.7%, with a market value of $4.48 trillion, falling back to third. Although Nvidia fell slightly by 1.03%, it still firmly holds first place with $4.81 trillion. Google's comeback is mainly due to its AI business now generating real profits. Google earns a lot from selling cloud computing power, saves money with self-developed chips, and its search ads have higher monetization efficiency after AI optimization, so the capital market naturally assigns a high valuation. Apple's current bottleneck is its heavy reliance on hardware update cycles. Although everyone anticipates new features, the hardware upgrade cycle is long, and software and AI services have yet to explode, so its valuation flexibility can't match Google's. Nvidia's position is very stable in the short term since major players are still buying from it. But in the medium to long term, big clients like Google and Microsoft are pushing self-developed chips, and once alternatives form, Nvidia's strong profitability will face challenges. $AAPL $GOOGL $NVDA Here are a few of my predictions for the upcoming trends: First, the battle for second and third place between Google and Apple will be the norm. If Apple's new devices sell well, it can rebound anytime, but looking at the momentum over the next two years, Google has more room in cloud and AI. Second, whether Nvidia can break $5 trillion depends on whether the big companies' computing power investments cool down. As long as computing power spending continues to increase, it can keep widening the gap. Third, market capital will become very selective. Just talking about concepts is useless; going forward, only companies that can convert technology into actual performance can maintain high valuations. Not investment advice, DYOR #USStocks

This week, the US stock AI industry chain is taking turns being questioned Recently, we saw big companies throwing money around in a frenzy, but now the market is starting to look at real cash—has the money actually flowed into the mid and downstream sectors? Can it turn into cash flow? Here are some of my thoughts on this week's US stocks and the AI industry chain: 1. Computing power and interconnects AMD / ANET / ALAB: Demand is not an issue, but expectations are set too high. Under high valuations, even slight flaws in gross margin or capacity can lead to sharp declines. If performance is good but stock prices pull back, don’t panic; this is a normal process of squeezing bubbles and building a bottom. 2. Storage sector SNDK / WDC / MU / SK Hynix: An underestimated essential demand. AI explosion requires not only HBM and enterprise-grade SSDs but also drives large-capacity cold storage HDDs. Once high gross margins and tight supply-demand balance are confirmed, the rebound potential may exceed expectations. 3. Mining companies transitioning to data centers HUT / WULF / CIFR: The story sounds great, but delivery is extremely difficult. Power and land are just entry tickets; the key lies in financing capabilities and project implementation. Subsequent differentiation will intensify; only companies with clear long-term leases and stable cash flow are worth pursuing. 4. The real ceiling determining the upper limit of tech stocks: The end of power is AI. Companies like VST that control power generation assets sell entry tickets and have strong defensive and offensive capabilities. Nonfarm payrolls and US Treasury yields: This week’s nonfarm data is the valuation suppression line. If the data is too strong, cooling rate cut expectations, high-valuation tech stocks will remain under pressure. 💡 Trading strategy: Don’t chase post-market jumps; watch if the price can hold after the open. Pay attention to whether Capex can smoothly transmit from GPUs to networks, storage, and power. Before the macro interest rate ceiling fully opens, it’s most comfortable to keep some position flexibility. Not investment advice DYOR #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴

#亚马逊向OpenAI投500亿美元：押注还是泡沫 $AMZN To be honest, when I saw Amazon confirm in its latest earnings report that it is investing the full $50 billion into OpenAI, my first reaction was that this move is a slick left hand to right hand play. If I had to choose between calling it a bet or a bubble, I’d lean towards defining it as a bundled cloud sales strategy disguised as a strategic bet, also a sophisticated cycle of financing played by big tech amid compute anxiety. What I value most is the core metric variable of the whole deal: whether OpenAI’s promised $100 billion cloud orders can truly convert into quality cash flow. 🪁 First, let’s look at the real value of these $100 billion cloud orders. Although $100 billion over eight years sounds intimidating and locks in a huge long-term revenue stream for AWS, we need to calculate OpenAI’s real cash-generating ability. Compute demand is indeed a bottomless pit, but if OpenAI can’t efficiently convert this compute into enterprise-level paid subscriptions or actual commercialized applications, then this $100 billion order will be heavily discounted financially. More importantly, OpenAI is extremely smart now; it hasn’t tied itself exclusively to any single cloud giant. From Microsoft, Oracle, Google, to now Amazon, it’s leveraging the anxiety of several big players about falling behind in the AI era to arbitrage compute globally. 🪁 Next, let’s consider the risks of preferred stock and liquidity. Amazon’s choice to hold preferred stock superficially looks like a liquidity lock, requiring OpenAI to go public or have other liquidity events before converting to common stock for cashing out, which seems to carry liquidity risk. But I think this risk is overestimated because Amazon’s calculations are very shrewd. Even if OpenAI doesn’t go public anytime soon, the $50 billion Amazon invested will flow back to Amazon’s books as cloud business revenue through OpenAI’s procurement of AWS services and Trainium self-developed chips. For Amazon, capital gains are just icing on the cake. Locking in AWS’s infrastructure leadership and the deployment scenarios for its own chips is the real tangible benefit. 🪁 Next, some speculation 🤨 One is that the cloud giants’ cycle financing model will soon face harsh market scrutiny. Currently, tech giants invest in AI unicorns, which then spend that money buying their cloud services and compute. This model might seem like a strong partnership once or twice, but repeated occurrences will lead capital markets to weed out the inflated growth caused by related-party transactions. Future earnings reports will be scrutinized more for real net profit and free cash flow. Another is that the decoupling of compute chips from Nvidia will accelerate significantly. OpenAI’s commitment to purchasing large amounts of Amazon’s Trainium chips is a very strong signal. Large model companies are frantically seeking alternatives to Nvidia to reduce compute costs, which will force major cloud giants’ self-developed chips to accelerate their path to mainstream. The AI infrastructure competition will evolve from relying solely on Nvidia GPUs to a deep integration of big tech’s self-developed chips with third-party cloud services. Not investment advice DYOR

#美日确认联合购汇 The whole internet has been talking about the US-Japan joint currency purchase these past two days. The USD/JPY rate has pulled back from above 162 to around 156. Many people think the US side only has a $40 billion exchange rate stabilization fund, so they feel this ammunition is insufficient. But this game is seriously underestimated if you only focus on the amount of ammunition and ignore the real impact of the intervention. 1. The signaling effect far outweighs the size of the funds Previously, when Japan acted alone, shorts were not afraid at all; they even treated intervention points as opportunities to add to their short positions on the yen for free money. Now, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has directly stated she will not hesitate to continue intervening, which changes the nature of the situation. What shorts fear most now is not how much money the US will spend, but the uncertainty of when the US and Japan might suddenly crash the market at a moment of liquidity fragility. The risk-reward ratio of shorting is instantly blown up, forcing many high-leverage arbitrage positions to close to survive. This psychological deterrent is far more effective than dumping several hundred billion in funds. 2. Forecast of the next moves 162 is very likely the phase peak of this round of yen depreciation. However, the yen is unlikely to rally sharply just from intervention alone; exchange rates ultimately depend on interest rate differentials. Intervention is only a catalyst; what truly supports yen strength is the pace of future Fed rate cuts and Bank of Japan rate hikes. As long as the interest rate gap starts to narrow, the yen will naturally trend downward with volatility. Conversely, if rate cuts fall short of expectations, the market will test the policy floor again. 3. Watch for hidden capital flows With the yen depreciation risk forcibly suppressed, the extremely crowded yen carry trade arbitrage of recent years will accelerate its unwinding. These funds will flow back to Japan, which in the short term will indeed put some liquidity drain pressure on risk assets like US Treasuries and crypto markets. The coming months are definitely worth close attention. In summary, intervention is never about fighting market trends head-on but about shattering short sellers’ expectations. As long as the US-Japan joint statement is in place, shorts won’t dare to act recklessly. Not investment advice DYOR

The three major indexes opened higher, tech stocks remain active, oil prices fell and oil stocks declined Just crowned the global top gainer for July, Hong Kong stocks collectively opened higher again on the first day of August. Did you profit from this rally? Today's market showed a clear divergence in strength: Alibaba rose over 3%, XunCe surged nearly 15% on impressive earnings, and AI and tech stocks collectively strengthened. On the other hand, oil stocks were dragged down by falling oil prices, with Shandong Molong dropping nearly 6% In my view, this market is essentially a very standard rotation between high and low sectors Why can tech stocks sustain? In the past, AI hype was seen as pie in the sky, but now companies like XunCe have proven monetization ability with solid earnings, giving investors confidence. Plus, giants like Alibaba and Tencent were previously undervalued, so when global funds prepare to increase exposure to Chinese assets, they will first target these fundamentally strong leaders What happened to oil stocks? Recently, investors bought oil and gas mainly for hedging and high dividends, pushing prices quite high. Now that crude oil prices are under pressure, funds naturally withdraw from the highs and flow into tech and new energy sectors with better value and flexibility What’s next? Short term: expect volatility as profit-taking after consecutive gains is normal. The AI sector will see accelerated differentiation; those with real earnings can continue to rise, while pure concept followers may face pullbacks Medium to long term: still optimistic. Hong Kong stocks remain attractively valued, and global fund reallocation is just beginning. Tech and new energy are the main rebound themes; as long as earnings continue to be delivered, the overall market’s upward trend amid volatility will persist Not investment advice DYOR

Recently, Berkshire's stock price quietly hit an eight-month high, with B shares breaking through $513, and the total market value firmly standing above $1.1 trillion. While tech stocks are fluctuating at high levels, this traditional asset has instead become a safe haven for funds. There are three main drivers behind this new high: First, the core holdings collectively gained momentum. The largest holding, Apple, has risen over 13% this year, combined with Coca-Cola's nearly 25% increase and Bank of America's rise of over 12%, directly boosting the portfolio's market value. Second, with increased macroeconomic uncertainty, funds naturally flow to companies with stable cash flows and strong moats, such as insurance, railroads, and energy. Finally, buyback expectations: the market anticipates that the upcoming Q2 earnings report will reveal a substantial stock repurchase program, providing solid support for the stock price. Berkshire's greatest strength has never been how much it surges in a bull market, but rather holding massive cash reserves during market volatility. This cash can reliably earn high-interest returns and also be deployed to buy the dip during irrational market declines. This asset structure, which has downside protection and upside flexibility, is very rare in today's US stock market. My judgment is to focus on the early August Q2 earnings report in the short term. If the actual buyback scale exceeds expectations, the probability of the stock price pushing to a new all-time high is very high. In the mid-term, as long as the trend of funds rotating from overvalued tech stocks to undervalued, high-dividend sectors continues, Berkshire will remain the top choice for institutional capital allocation. If the broader market experiences a pullback later, it is often a more comfortable entry point for long-term funds. This is not investment advice. DYOR

#SPCX首份财报将公布，千亿美元解禁在即 $SPCX $XSPCX Everyone watching the US stock market these past couple of days should have noticed SpaceX. On August 4 after market close, the first earnings report since listing will be released, but the real challenge is the massive unlocking on August 6. This unlocking involves over 910 million shares, accounting for 20% of the total shares. At the current stock price, this amounts to more than $100 billion, which is much larger than the current actual circulating shares. The market has already started selling off in advance, with the stock price dropping from a high of $225 all the way down to around $108, breaking below the IPO price and nearly halving. Short positions now account for one-third of the circulating shares. The reason everyone is so panicked this time is: First, the market can't absorb the supply. The circulating shares were too small at listing, and now suddenly over $100 billion worth of selling pressure is flooding in, which the market liquidity simply can't handle. Second, profitability is not yet proven. Although Starlink is growing fast, the company as a whole is still burning cash. The earnings report cannot provide a clear path to profitability, so bulls are reluctant to hold on. 🤔 Outlook for the near term: In the short term, there is a very high risk of the price breaking below the $100 mark around August 6. Even if Musk’s shares are locked until 2027, early institutions and employees will still cash out to secure profits. In the medium to long term, there is no need to be overly pessimistic. This is very similar to Tesla’s unlocking trend back then. SpaceX has a very solid monopoly barrier in satellites and heavy rockets. This sharp drop is actually a golden buying opportunity. The trading advice is simple: don’t rush to bottom-fish these days. Let the selling pressure fully vent and the stock price form a bottom at a low level before considering. This is not investment advice. DYOR

Amazon has directly raised its capital expenditure for 2026 to $220 billion, $20 billion more than estimated, planning to invest 1.6 trillion RMB in one year. The numbers look staggering, but combined with the latest earnings report, this spending is far from reckless. 🤔 Specifically, there are three core logics: 🪁 Demand is not a false boom; cloud business growth is fully maxed out AWS Q2 revenue surged 37% year-over-year, marking the highest growth rate in nearly four years, with backlog orders approaching $500 billion. CEO Jassy also admitted that including plans for 2027 and 2028, computing power remains in short supply. This shows that enterprise demand for AI and cloud services is genuinely strong. 🪁 The additional $20 billion largely goes to covering costs This budget increase is not just for building more data centers but also forced by rising hardware prices. High-end storage and chips are in short supply, pushing procurement costs higher. A significant portion of the new funds is to absorb the rigid cost increases in the supply chain. 🪁 Short-term cash flow is negative, but the arms race giants have no way out The aggressive spending has caused Amazon’s free cash flow to turn negative over the past 12 months, but this is a strategic investment. Whoever lags in computing power will lose customers to Microsoft or Google. As long as demand is real, heavy asset infrastructure will yield steady returns over several years, and short-term tightness is fully controllable. ✍️ Looking ahead, several trends can be predicted: 🪁 Bottlenecks shift; storage and power become new pain points Buying GPUs alone is not enough; storage components and power supply are becoming new capacity chokepoints. Whoever can secure stable energy and supply chains will be able to truly deliver computing power. 🪁 In-house chip development will accelerate Facing expensive procurement costs, Amazon will push its own Trainium and Graviton chips more aggressively. This will reduce costs for customers and save money for itself, boosting profit margins. 🪁 Upstream hardware supply chain continues to quietly profit The AI infrastructure arms race that giants can’t stop directly benefits upstream high-end storage, optical modules, and data center power suppliers. This boom is expected to last a long time. In summary, Amazon’s budget increase is driven by strong demand and cost pressures. The AI infrastructure arms race among tech giants is far from over; the midgame has just begun. Not investment advice DYOR #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%