#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a 19-year high, and the market is truly starting to trade not just on whether the Fed will cut rates next time. The deeper concern is that the US Treasury will continue large-scale bond issuance for years to come. With high deficits and huge refinancing needs, overseas buyer participation is also changing. As supply increases, the returns buyers demand naturally rise. The rise in the 30-year yield impacts more slowly than short-term rates but more broadly: Mortgage rates won’t come down, suppressing real estate recovery Corporate long-term financing costs increase, making expansion, buybacks, and mergers more cautious The US government’s annual interest payments continue to rise, squeezing fiscal space Companies in the US stock market that rely on future profits to support valuations face particular pressure Many interpret this as "bonds falling," but from a capital perspective, long-term US Treasuries now offer very high risk-free returns. Global capital is rebalancing between risk assets, cash, and bonds, forcing a recalculation of valuation systems. Going forward, besides inflation and Fed statements, three things to watch: Whether demand at US Treasury auctions is strong enough Whether the long-term term premium continues to rise Whether there are signs of fiscal deficit convergence The 30-year US Treasury yield standing high means the world’s most important pricing benchmark remains under pressure. This round of volatility may not be over yet. #美债 #美联储 #宏观 #美股 #资产配置

Amazon is up 15% today, and I think the market is starting to reassess one thing: the AI investments by big tech might yield returns faster than expected. Since the beginning of this year, big tech's performance has been quite mixed. The market's biggest concern is clear: Microsoft, Google, and Amazon continue to increase AI CapEx, buying chips and building data centers, but when will these investments truly translate into revenue and profit? This earnings report sends a strong signal. Google Cloud grew 63%, with a clear improvement in cloud business profits; AWS grew 28%, with growth accelerating again; Microsoft Azure grew 40%, and enterprise orders already signed but not yet recognized as revenue nearly doubled. The data shows that AI computing power demand remains very strong. New capacity is being quickly absorbed by customers, orders continue to accumulate, and cloud business growth and profits are improving. Previously, the market focused more on the pressure CapEx puts on free cash flow. Now, pricing needs to factor in accelerating cloud revenue, rising orders, and the possibility of further upward revisions in profit expectations over the next few quarters. Amazon's 15% rise today reflects this expectation adjustment. If the guidance from several big tech companies continues to strengthen, the market will further extrapolate AI demand and profit growth, and big tech could once again become the main driver of the index. The short-term market remains unstable, and it's not advisable to blindly chase after large gains. But for those who already hold positions, as long as cloud growth, orders, and guidance continue to be fulfilled, there's no need to sell lightly due to short-term fluctuations.

#韩股补跌超4%，存储股跌势延续 Korean stocks fell again today. The main indexes once dropped more than 4% intraday. The Korean market, which had been relatively resilient in recent days, couldn't escape this time and directly faced a sharp "catch-up" decline. The worst hit were the memory chip stocks. Recently, semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have been the core support of the Korean stock market, especially after the AI boom, with the market betting on a huge surge in demand for high-bandwidth memory chips, namely HBM. But the problem is, expectations were too high. When everyone believes AI chips and memory chips will keep rising, stock prices often already price in the future. Once the market starts worrying about a slowdown in AI investment, chip prices peaking, or company performance not being as strong as imagined, capital will exit immediately. This is a key reason for the recent continuous decline in memory stocks. Many might ask: Isn't AI still booming? Why are memory chips falling? Actually, the stock market never trades on "how things are now," but on "whether things can get better in the future." AI demand still exists, but the market worries that the growth rate may slow down. Plus, the memory industry is highly cyclical; when prices rise too much, manufacturers expand production; when supply increases, prices may fall again. Simply put, investors are now worried not about lack of demand, but about how long the good times can last. Another big problem for Korean stocks is that the index overly depends on a few semiconductor giants. When Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fall, the whole market tends to be dragged down. Additionally, foreign investors hold a large share in the Korean market, and when global market sentiment worsens, foreign capital often withdraws quickly and aggressively. So, the over 4% drop in Korean stocks this time, on the surface, looks like a big index drop, but behind it are three signals: First, the high valuations of global tech stocks are cooling down. Second, the market is re-evaluating growth expectations for AI and memory chips. Third, capital is rapidly withdrawing from high-volatility markets. Of course, after continuous big drops, a short-term rebound may occur. But note, a rebound does not equal a reversal. Whether memory stocks can truly stop falling depends on three things: whether chip prices can stabilize, whether company performance can meet expectations, and whether foreign capital will buy back. If none of these signals appear, then no matter how big the rebound, it may just be a breather in the downtrend. This round of decline also reminds investors: The most dangerous time in the market is often not when everyone is pessimistic, but when everyone believes "it can keep rising." High-growth industries can be optimistic long-term, but high-valuation stocks should never be judged by story alone, ignoring price. #韩股 #美光 #SK海力士 #存储 #半导体

#CLARITY voting week begins, Warren demands disclosure of crypto holdings Big events are happening in the US crypto space this week. On one side, Congress is preparing to push the CLARITY Act, aiming to clarify a long-standing unclear issue: who exactly should regulate Bitcoin, exchanges, and various crypto projects, and under what rules. On the other side, Senator Warren suddenly targets Trump, demanding he disclose his latest crypto assets and earnings. The reason is simple: if those involved in making crypto rules also hold large amounts of crypto assets themselves, are these rules really protecting the market, or just boosting their own assets? So this vote, on the surface, is about crypto regulation, but behind it lies a more practical question: Can the rule-makers also profit from the rules? This is also very important for ordinary investors. If the bill passes smoothly, the rules for the US crypto market will be clearer, and institutional funds may be more willing to enter; but if political struggles escalate, the bill may be further delayed, and the market could see increased short-term volatility. What’s truly worth watching this week is not just whether CLARITY passes, but ultimately who the rules protect. #CLARITY #CryptoRegulation #BTC #Crypto

BTC is currently fluctuating around $64,500, overall still in a recovery phase following the previous decline. Short-term sentiment has warmed up somewhat, but mid-term reversal signals are not yet clear. From a technical perspective, the $65,000 to $65,500 range is the most critical resistance zone at present. If volume increases and it breaks through and holds above this level, the market has a chance to continue pushing up to $68,000, and in a strong scenario, even retest the $70,000 psychological level. Conversely, if multiple attempts to break higher fail, caution is needed for short-term profit-taking exits. On the downside, key support is at $63,000. As long as this level holds, BTC is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation; if it breaks below $63,000, a further pullback to the $60,000 to $61,500 area is possible. Once $60,000 is lost, market sentiment may weaken again. Regarding capital flows, recent ETF funds have seen inflows, providing some price support, but sustainability remains to be observed. Attention should also be paid to Federal Reserve policy expectations, U.S. stock market trends, and changes in global risk appetite. Overall, the current situation looks more like a consolidation recovery rather than a clear one-sided rally. It is not recommended to blindly chase highs near resistance levels in the short term; focus on waiting for a volume breakout or pullback confirmation. Key levels: Resistance: $65,500, $68,000, $70,000 Support: $63,000, $61,000, $60,000 For market discussion only, not investment advice. #BTC #比特币 #Crypto