🌙 BlockInfinity Evening Market Report · Powered By Wesley 🌐 Macro 🔴 July Nonfarm Payrolls -23,000 (first negative since February, vs expected +83,000), unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% — private sector +30,000 dragged down by government -53,000; hourly wages +3.2%, lowest since May 2021. 🟡 Market interpretation = marginally dovish but no paradigm shift, interest rate futures still price about 28bp hike in December. Apollo economists: inflation is now a matter of Fed credibility; Barkin continues hawkish tone. 🟢 US Dollar Index weakened to 99.60 (-0.37%), 10Y Treasury yield 4.66% — tailwind for gold. 🌍 International Situation 🟢 Nvidia plans to invest up to $3 billion in power company Lancium (serving OpenAI/Oracle AI campus), AI power infrastructure narrative heats up. 🟡 SK Hynix announces $38.4 billion investment to expand chip production in South Korea; ByteDance claims training a 10 trillion parameter model. 🔴 US Senate passes energy sanctions on Russia; Ukraine agrees to avoid attacks on non-Russian oil tankers and Black Sea facilities (bearish for oil). Middle East: Yemen launches military action against Houthis, Hormuz standoff continues (Bassent says Hormuz will "lose importance"). 📊 Technicals (multi-timeframe) ₿ BTC $64,885 (+0.87%/24h) 　🟢 Daily: MACD golden cross on main line, histogram +88 expanding, bullish alignment, above MA20/50, RSI 54.8 — bullish bias. 　🟡 4H/1H: Bollinger Bands width narrowed to 1.9%/1.1%, ⚠️ imminent volatility, direction undecided, volume shrinking. Range 62.5K–66.3K. Ξ ETH $1,913 (+0.65%) 　🟡 Daily MACD still bearish alignment (histogram -7.8) but above MA20/50/100; 4H bullish alignment RSI59; overall neutral to slightly bullish, weaker than BTC. Resistance 1,946 / Support 1,839. 　🔴 SOL weakest leg (daily bearish RSI46.6). ⚙️ Derivatives 🟡 Funding rates mildly neutral: BTC settlement +0.0038%/8h, current forecast ≈0; ETH similarly slightly positive. No extremes. 🔴 Spot premium turned negative -0.055% / -$36 — "follow down, not up" divergence continues this week (gold hits new highs, BTC only +0.9%). 🟡 Fear & Greed Index 30 (Fear, slightly up from yesterday); options MaxPain 8/8≈65K magnetizes current price. ₿ BTC Core 🟡 Daily golden cross gives bullish undertone, but 4H/1H Bollinger extreme narrowing = energy compressed to critical point, avoid directional bets before breakout. Break above 66.3K (Bollinger upper band) opens 67-68K; daily close below 62.5K turns bearish. Current window is "wait for breakout" not "chase trades." 🧭 Overall Judgment 🟢 US stocks continue record highs (S&P +0.62%/Nasdaq +1.30%/Semis +2.56% strong, led by NVDA), VIX 14.90 low — risk-on sentiment present but concentrated in AI/semiconductor equipment. 🔴 Storage sector weakest against trend (SNDK/Hynix/MU consecutive declines), crypto not following gains. 🟢 The cleanest trend = precious metals: gold $4,341 (+2.4%) hits new highs, silver $63.8 (+3.8%), dollar weakening + safe haven resonance. 🎯 Today's Trading Suggestions (for reference only, not personal positions) 🟡 BTC: Bollinger narrowing advises against chasing trades. Bullish = hold above 65K and break 66.3K then chase, target 67-68K; bearish = daily close below 62.5K turns weak. Stop loss no tighter than daily ATR $1,342 (≈2%). Light position, wait for breakout confirmation. 🟡 ETH: follow BTC, one notch weaker, resistance 1,946/support 1,839, no independent directional bets. 🟢 Gold is currently the smoothest bullish trend, but after consecutive gains, wait for pullback confirmation before chasing, avoid chasing at highs. ⚠️ "Follow down, not up" unresolved = risk-on has not truly returned to crypto, heavy one-sided bets carry high risk. ⚠️ Risk Events (Outlook) 🔴 Next week CPI (higher weight on rate hike path than nonfarm payrolls). 🟡 Storage remote oversupply confirmation signals (TrendForce contract price / CXMT ramp). 🟡 Middle East Hormuz agreement progress / Russia-Ukraine sanctions impact on oil prices. 🟡 BTC 4H/1H Bollinger narrowing — volatility direction to clarify anytime. —— BlockInfinity Research

A significant move has occurred in the geopolitical landscape: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a "Joint Defense Agreement" in Mecca, considering any armed attack on any one of the three countries as an attack on all three—a parallel alliance structure similar to NATO's clause. Turkey specifically clarified that this does not conflict with NATO. Those who understand will understand: this reconstruction of a defense alliance won't immediately impact market pricing in the short term, but it is a fundamental variable that will gradually change the Middle East risk premium. The formation of a military mutual defense network spanning the Gulf and South Asia means that any future conflict at any point is more likely to escalate into a camp confrontation. This is a line to keep long-term watch on for oil and safe-haven assets. No need to rush into trading it; just remember it. Let's see how it unfolds.

A piece of news that everyone has overlooked but is crucial to the inflation chain: Ukraine has agreed to stop attacking non-Russian oil tankers and Kazakh oil facilities in the Black Sea; meanwhile, Kpler data shows that only 6 oil tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz this week. On one hand, the risk of oil transportation in the Black Sea is easing (bullish for supply, bearish for oil prices), while on the other hand, the sharp reduction in passage through Hormuz (bearish for supply, bullish for oil prices) creates a tug of war between these two forces. Why should crypto players care? Because oil prices are upstream of inflation expectations, and inflation expectations are directly tied to the pace of interest rate cuts and real interest rates — this chain ultimately transmits to the risk asset levels. Geopolitics is not for betting on direction but for gauging the background temperature. Let's watch and see.

The narrative around domestic AI has been very intense these past few days, here are three key points at once: ByteDance is reported to be training a large model with 10 trillion parameters, directly competing with the world's top; Cambricon's net profit for the first half of the year reached ¥2.311 billion, a year-on-year surge of 123%; Beijing Yizhuang also issued the city's first "token economy" policy, providing ¥100 million annually in subsidies for models and token vouchers. Those who understand, understand—this combination signals that domestic computing power plus large models are moving from "storytelling" to "delivering results"—Cambricon's profits are real cash realized. For the secondary market, narratives with fundamentals that can be realized are much more resilient than pure PPT concepts. Watch this trend carefully, distinguishing which are supported by policy subsidies and which have actual orders coming in. Let's see how it unfolds.

A narrative quietly shifting gears: Nvidia has agreed to invest up to $3 billion in the power infrastructure company Lancium — backed by Blackstone, specializing in providing power to AI campuses in Texas serving OpenAI and Oracle. Those in the know understand the significance of this line: the bottleneck for AI is shifting from "computing power" to "electricity." In the past two years, everyone scrambled for GPUs and advanced process nodes; now even Nvidia itself is starting to invest upstream in power. This indicates that the short-term ceiling for data centers is not chips, but whether they can secure electricity that is cheap enough and stable enough. The next real bottleneck narrative might not be on silicon, but on the power grid. Whoever controls the power controls AI's production capacity. Let's watch. $BTC

BlockInfinity Research Market Recap · 8/7: Weak Nonfarm Payrolls Didn't Ignite Risk-On; Clear Trend in Precious Metals, Not Crypto 🌍 Macro Environment US July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 23,000 (expected positive growth), the first decline since February; unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (lowest since June 2025). Interest rate futures: still pricing in about 28bp rate hike by December (32bp before nonfarm) — this round remains an inflation/hiking paradigm, weak employment did not translate into rate cut bets. Gold continues to hit new highs at $4,342 (+2.4%), silver $63.4 (+3.5%), dual safe-haven and inflation-hedge effect. Dow futures 54,076 (+0.12%); European stocks closed higher (DAX +0.63%/FTSE 100 +0.33%). Trump: AI is more important than oil, "Whoever wins AI wins everything." 🛢️ International Situation Iran-Hormuz standoff continues (Tehran mayor: no lifting sanctions + compensation, no passage through the strait); Russian military hit two cargo ships in the Black Sea. Huaxia downgraded Brent: Q3 average $80, Q4 $70, 2027 $65; WTI $78.4 (+0.7%). China: Beijing relaxes property policies (non-local social security requirement reduced to 1 year); A-shares strengthen (SSE 3940 +1.0%/CSI 300 +0.9%), semiconductor chain strong (Montage +3.4%). 📊 Crypto Technicals (Multi-timeframe) $BTC $64,921 (+0.5%): Daily MACD histogram +78 continuing uptrend, above Bollinger upper band, bullish bias; 4H multiple RSI 61.8; 15m bearish entangled pullback. ETH $1,918 (+0.4%): 1H bullish, 4H bullish RSI 62.6, daily MACD slightly negative but recovering, entangled bullish. SOL $73.9 (+0.9%): Daily bearish RSI 46.6, weakest leg. 📉 Derivatives 24h short squeeze BTC $30.3M vs long squeeze $7.8M (short squeeze about 4x), ETH short squeeze $23.3M — short squeeze structure continues. Fee rates mildly positive: BTC +0.0063%/8h, ETH +0.0036%, SOL +0.01% (no extremes). Open interest changes mild, volume very low (holiday-like quiet). 🎯 BTC Core Spot discount −0.088% / −$56 (institutional bias to sell side). Fear & Greed Index 26 (fear); DVOL 46. Max Pain: 8/8=65,000 (PCR 0.94), 8/9-8/10=64,500 — magnetic pull near current price, option premiums induce both long and short traps. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Intraday Update (California 12:10 PT) BTC $64,780 (+0.56%) — magnetic oscillation around 64K. Daily MACD golden cross, above MA20/50 bullish, but 4H/1H Bollinger bands narrowing = approaching breakout. Range 62.2K↓ / 66.9K↑, no direction until broken. ETH $1,911 (+0.21%) — holding MA20/50, 4H bullish, 1H slight death cross. SOL remains weakest leg. Spot discount −0.08% / −$52, no catch-up in US session; crypto fails to follow US stocks new highs + gold surge, "follow down not up" divergence continues. 🇺🇸 US Stocks / Safe Haven (US session ongoing) S&P 7,749 (+0.5%, record area) | Nasdaq 26,637 (+1.09%) | Dow 54,010 (+0.23%) | Semis SOX +2.48% strong. But storage sector is weakest: SNDK −4.2% / SK Hynix −4.3% / MU −2.1% (third consecutive day down, valuation cut). Gold hits new high $4,395 (+2.2%), silver $63.5 (+3.1%) — truly clear trend in precious metals. WTI $78.2 (+1.2%) | VIX 14.87 (−1.9%, low and calm). 📰 Key News US Senate passed 86–11 the Russia energy sanctions bill (to House) + added 13 Iran-related entities sanctions → oil price support. BLS new chief Matsumoto confirmed by Senate (51–47), replacing predecessor fired by Trump last year over weak employment data — combined with weak nonfarm, data credibility is focal point, but rate futures still price December hike. Musk: Starship 13th flight recovery not optimistic; Grok Build progressing. 🧭 Summary Judgment Weak nonfarm failed to ignite crypto risk-on: gold hits new highs, BTC only small gains, "follow down not up" divergence continues this week, risk-on and safe-haven both failing. Structurally oscillating between 63K–66K, Max Pain magnetic pull at 65K + short squeeze support, but no daily-level trend confirmation. 👉 No clean one-way trade in crypto, no position unless daily break (above 65.4–66K → confirm long / below 62.2–63K → turn short); avoid chasing trades near range midpoints or magnetic zones to avoid whipsaws; if eager, only light short-term trades with wide stops. 👉 Clear trend in gold/silver, not in crypto or storage; gold momentum strongest, scale in on pullbacks, avoid chasing tops. 👉 Storage/semis down third day (SNDK −4% / SK Hynix −5% / MU −2%), weakest sector valuation cut — avoid chasing shorts mid-range or catching falling knives, only tactical small positions both sides. ⚠️ Risk Events Next week US CPI (key inflation paradigm); Hormuz geopolitical tail risk; storage sector correction continuation vs A-share storage chain divergence; short squeeze rebound without volume follow-through prone to traps, avoid results-oriented trading. BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley Real-time data capture, not investment advice

Let's talk about the main theme of gold and watch how it unfolds. Gold prices have hit new highs again, approaching 4340. Many people only see it as a safe haven, but there is actually a longer underlying narrative: global central banks are de-dollarizing, reducing their US Treasury holdings while hoarding gold. This is a structural purchase on a yearly scale. What the crypto community should care about is that gold and $BTC were once both called 'non-sovereign stores of value,' but in this cycle, gold keeps hitting new highs while BTC hasn't kept up. This indicates that, in the eyes of institutions, the true safe-haven anchor right now is gold, not crypto. This is not shameful; it’s a reminder that BTC’s current pricing logic is more like Nasdaq’s high beta, not digital gold. Do you agree more that BTC is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset?

Here's a painful observation that those in the know will understand. This round of the US stock market has AI, SpaceX, and a wave of new narratives like optical communication pouring in money one after another. Gold has de-dollarization and safe-haven appeal. But crypto—count for yourself—what truly exciting new stories have there been recently? The ETF benefits have been fully realized, Layer 2's potential has peaked, and meme coin rotations are just a zero-sum game. It's not that crypto can't rise; it's just temporarily lacking a big narrative that can attract incremental off-exchange capital. $BTC is stuck here essentially waiting for the next story. Instead of guessing the price, focus on who can first tell the new narrative convincingly. What do you think the next big crypto narrative will be?

A commentary on an industry chain signal to remember tonight. The US stock optical communication sector collectively surged, with Applied Optoelectronics +9%, Lumentum +6.2%, Corning +5.4%—this is not an isolated rally. The AI story so far: Act One was computing power (GPU), Act Two was power and cooling, and now we have clearly entered Act Three: how to rapidly transfer data across thousands of cards, with optical interconnect becoming the new bottleneck. The narrative unfolds in sequence; being able to foresee "where the next bottleneck will be" puts you half a step ahead of those chasing headlines. Those who understand, understand. Who do you think will be the next named player in the AI chain?

Narratives are something to watch as they unfold. SpaceX's US stock surged 15.8% last night—the heat from the primary market is increasingly spilling over into the secondary market. Right after institutions disclosed their holdings, the stock price surged with volume; the pricing power of pre-IPO assets is gradually shifting from a few institutions to the public market. Behind this is a whole narrative forming around 'securitizing unlisted giants': targets like SpaceX and OpenAI, which are usually inaccessible, are being packaged through various structures and offered to retail investors. Opportunities and bubbles are often two sides of the same coin, so protect your ammunition. Would you engage with this kind of pre-IPO concept?