$XAG silver has broken through a downtrend lasting over half a year, combined with the strengthening of gold $XAUT, it may be worth trying to enter.

$ETH trading volume has shrunk to what, just staying flat like this for a long time, feels like a big wave is coming soon

$ETH has formed a head; a drop below 1852 can be shorted

#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 I believe 99% of people don't know what U.S. Treasuries are or how Treasury yields impact the economy, so I think it's necessary to give a simple explanation: * U.S. Treasuries mean you lend money to the U.S. government, which pays interest regularly and returns the principal at maturity. * So why does the bond price fall when Treasury yields rise? * Here's a simple example. Suppose you hold an old U.S. Treasury bond worth $1,000 that pays $40 interest annually, equivalent to 4%. Later, the U.S. government issues new bonds paying $50 annually, equivalent to 5%. Naturally, no one wants to pay $1,000 for your old bond that only pays $40. You have to sell the old bond at a discount. When the bond price drops, the buyer's actual yield rises, gradually approaching the level of newly issued bonds in the market. * As of July 31, the yields on U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities of 2, 5, 10, and 30 years rose approximately to: 2 years: 4.28% 5 years: 4.45% 10 years: 4.75% 30 years: 5.27% * What do the different maturities signify? 2 years: The market's vote on the Fed's next move. 5 years: The market's judgment on the next economic cycle. 10 years: The 10-year Treasury is one of the most important interest rate benchmarks in the global financial market. U.S. mortgages, corporate loans, corporate bonds, and many stock valuations are directly or indirectly influenced by the 10-year Treasury yield. So the 10-year Treasury can be understood as the baseline price for global capital. 30 years: The price at which the market is willing to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years. It reflects long-term inflation, fiscal pressure, and time risk. * So this new high in yields indicates the market's concerns go beyond whether the Fed will raise rates in the short term. If I am to lend money to the U.S. for 30 years, a return of about 4% is no longer enough; I need at least over 5% to compensate for decades of inflation and uncertainty. What are the impacts of this? ① Those holding long-term bonds may face significant unrealized losses. ② U.S. stock valuations will come under pressure. ③ Mortgage rates and corporate financing may remain high. ④ The U.S. government's interest burden will gradually increase. * To summarize: the rise in the 30-year Treasury yield means global capital is repricing the U.S.'s long-term borrowing. The real focus going forward is not whether the yield briefly hits 5.27%, but whether the 30-year yield can fall back below 5%. If long-term Treasury yields stay above 5% for a prolonged period, the impact will extend beyond bonds to U.S. mortgages, corporate financing, stock valuations, government finances, and the pricing system of all global assets.

A few days ago, I reminded the group that the $LINK trend was standard for shorting, so I entered with a small position to play around

Created a dollar-cost averaging plan, starting to invest in $BTC $ETH $LINK and HYPE, investing $1000 daily, planning to continue until November

Don't miss this opportunity for $LINK

Recently, $HYPE trading volume has been sluggish. Is there a chance it could return to 45 so I can make a move? 🙏🏻

#EarningsObserver: Who can truly understand the real results of Google and Tesla this time? I made two charts to give everyone an intuitive feel for Tesla and Google's earnings data and the market's focus: $GOOGL Google's main business remains strong, with cloud computing services showing very impressive growth, but the main reason for the stock price decline is the excessive investment in AI and databases, resulting in negative actual cash flow; $TSLA Tesla's car sales are rising, but the profit from the main business has dropped significantly, a typical "low margin, high volume" scenario. Excessive investment in AI and robotaxi has led to negative free cash flow. *Which stock do I prefer? Personally, I would choose $TSLA, because with the development of AI, GEO will become an unstoppable trend. Google's core competitive advantage—the search engine demand—will gradually decline, and Google's AI model growth is weak; in contrast, Tesla's FSD is a long-term growth demand. If robotaxi takes off, future car usage will just be a widespread "service," and Tesla will have an absolute monopoly on this service.

Currently $BTC is close to 67,000, is it a rebound or a reversal? Here is my conclusion: it is still in the rebound phase. Looking at the first chart, the 4-hour level, two positions are very critical, one at 67,300 and one at 68,100. These are two high liquidity points, and it is highly likely that they will be tested. The action after testing is crucial: will there be a strong bullish candle with volume pushing it up directly, or will it linger for a while and then quickly fall back? ① If there is a strong bullish candle with volume pushing it up, the probability of reaching 72,000 increases; ② If there is no volume breakout and it lingers above, then consider shorting on a pullback to the resistance level. Looking at the second chart, the daily level, there is currently no increase in trading volume. So we only need to focus on the action after it breaks through 67,300 to 68,100. This is the divergence point between bulls and bears. A volume breakout means short-term long, a pullback means consider shorting here, but be sure to set a stop loss. #加密行情回暖，比特币走高