Here's a principle from the poker table that fits perfectly tonight. Storage is going crazy again—SanDisk's quarterly revenue rose 372% year-over-year, announced a $14 billion buyback, and institutions say memory shortages will last until 2027. Yet many are only now thinking about chasing storage stocks. There's a saying at the poker table: when your hand is so good that everyone sees it, entering the game usually just means you're handing chips to others. I've been talking about the storage sector for months; the money to be made is reserved for those who positioned early and can withstand the pullbacks, not for those chasing highs based on news headlines. I'm not saying it's peaked, but "opportunities everyone knows about" usually aren't opportunities anymore. If you're itching to chase, first ask yourself: what do you really know that the market doesn't?

All fluctuations are within the professor's expectations: first short at 1450, then buy the dip below 1300. $sndk $mu

The digital currency revolution is here!

A reminder for you all, don't be fooled by today's $ETH. It's the strongest leg among the majors today, rising more spiritedly than $BTC — but it was the weakest one all last week. A weak leg suddenly bouncing back for a day is mostly an oversold rebound or short covering, not a trend reversal. There's a saying at the poker table: one card doesn't make a flush. I'm still bearish on the direction; one day of relative strength doesn't change the big picture. To really confirm a reversal, we need to see if it can hold steady for several daily candles with volume supporting it. Until then, don't take the rebound as a belief.

To be blunt. Gold has hit a historic high, with queues at jewelry stores downstairs, middle-aged women jumping in, and WeChat Moments starting to circulate "buy gold to hedge inflation," and now a bunch of people are just thinking about chasing it. I won't chase. When an asset's rise is known by everyone, even those who don't watch the market are talking about it, what you're buying into is not value but the tail end of others' emotions. The two most expensive words in trading are "chasing highs"—every new high you chase is you carrying the sedan chair for those who entered early. Real skill is hiding in wait when no one is talking, not rushing in to catch the falling knife amid the fanfare.

Let's talk about a common principle between poker and trading. The news about Hormuz these past two days has been like a roller coaster: one moment Iran and Oman are close to finalizing an agreement to reopen the route, the next moment Israel strikes Hezbollah. People trying to trade by betting on a headline direction are basically "all in with a single waiting card" at the table—you think you're betting on the outcome, but you're actually betting on luck. The real strategy is: keep your bets small before the direction becomes clear, and don't let news beyond your control decide your account. When uncertain, the best position is often no position at all.

Here's a signal I've been watching for several days, without specific price points. U.S. stocks keep hitting new highs every day, AI semiconductor stocks are surging, and gold has also reached a historic high—both risk-on and safe-haven money are flowing simultaneously, yet $BTC stubbornly stays stuck at 64K, neither following the risk-on trend nor recognizing the safe-haven move. This kind of "fall with the market but not rise with it" divergence is the most honest evidence that crypto itself lacks incremental funds. Directionally, I still lean bearish, but I'm not telling you to short naked right now—wait until the daily chart truly breaks down before making a move. Holding a short position without discomfort is easy; chasing in and getting shaken out is what's tough.

Google overnight: DeepMind's head "promoted" to Chief Scientist, Jeff Dean leaves with three of the world's most cited researchers to start a company. Translation: The temple remains, but the immortals have all left. In 1999, top engineers also lined up to start companies like this, and everyone knows what happened next. Bubbles never look at valuations; they watch when talent starts cashing out.

Gold has been crazily interesting these past couple of days, with spot gold breaking above 4200 to hit new highs, even the gold shops downstairs have lines. I'm not chasing it. The reason is simple: when an asset rises to the point that everyone knows about it, even the elderly who don't watch the market are entering, the odds are no longer in your favor. The most expensive ticket at the table is the hand that "everyone thinks is a sure win." I'm not saying gold will drop immediately, but chasing it at this level means you are taking on a severely asymmetric risk-reward ratio. Real opportunities are often hidden in unpopular, overlooked areas, not in the headline-grabbing hype. Would you dare to chase gold now?